Memo to the hopeful, RE: Don't uncork the champagne yet

Against punditry's obligatory caveats that politics is an unpredictable racket and two or three weeks can be a lifetime of shocking change, there nevertheless lies a fairly solid consensus that Democrats are on the verge of crushing the opposition. They may take only the needed number of six Senate seats, but up to 40 – as opposed to the requisite 15 – House seats are slated by the commentariat to shift to the “D” column.

Not so fast.

True, while some left-leaning pundits may only be playing the seemingly out-to-lunch, Bush-Rove sanguinity game to pump up the base, some on the right may be joining in the prevailing gloomy consensus as an alternative, hedge-betting method of base-pumping. “OK boys, only seconds to go in the 4th, we're down by six, now let's get out there and score one for the Gipper” (or, these days, the Groppers). Those usually reliable Republican voters uninspired by Bush-Rove's optimism may well become motivated by the unsavory prospect of impending doom. It's a smart, off-setting message.

Plus it is true, as the New York Times reported yesterday, that “Republican strategists” conceded “that the flow of bad news out of Iraq and the resignation of Representative Mark Foley ... had soured the environment for incumbents and blunted the impact of a long-planned crush of negative advertisements Republicans had prepared to undercut Democratic challengers this month.”

Just as true, however, is that “Republicans are now pinning their hopes of holding the Senate on three states — Missouri, Tennessee and ... Virginia — while trying to hold on to the House by pouring money into districts where Republicans have a strong historical or registration advantage.”

Significantly, 26 of the 29 districts awash in GOP cash are “R”-incumbencies, and “D”-hopefuls should not, but probably will, make the mistake of discounting the power of negative advertising. Not only has it shown historically to be the most effective form of political propaganda (despite voters' protestations of dislike and disgust of it), its primary purpose isn't to rally the troops, but to dampen the opposition's turnout. Given that so many Democratic-leaning voters are – let's face it – plain lazy, it often doesn't take much for the Rs to make the winning difference.

Then of course there's the GOP's scientifically refined, get-out-the-vote organizational skills and the in-place organization itself. Simply put, Republicans know that politics should be run with businesslike efficiency, while Democrats still tend to huddle, whenever it's convenient, to shout feel-good Walmart cheers and then rehuddle on election eve to ask who among them is perhaps willing to help get friends to the polls.

Obviously I exaggerate, but I kid you not – I've had dealings with Republican operatives and dealings with Democratic operatives, and I've nearly always felt the difference was that, respectively, between working with a John D. Rockefeller and working with Mayberry's Ernest T. Bass. What surprises isn't that Democrats are 21 seats shy of a Congressional majority; what surprises is that they hold any seats at all.

In addition to the GOP's superior tacticians, in addition to all the GOP's cash, in addition to all the GOP's ground organization, and in addition to the Dems' uncanny knack for snatching defeat from the snarling mandibles of victory, there is the presence of the GOP's evangelical base as a profoundly devoted, profoundly ignorant crowd – ignorant in the literal sense of see no evil – a vital conservative constituency that has a way of allowing itself to be repeatedly sucker punched, then ask for more.

Don't count on David Kuo's Tempting Faith revelations to have the negative effect on right-wing Christian voters so frequently anticipated. Admittedly this is singular and anecdotal, but a visit to talk-radio land last weekend unearthed a general agreement among hardcore evangelicals that Mr. Kuo is just a stooge of the Democratic Party, his tome merely the product of a sinister, godless plot hatched by the DNC and, no doubt, the Evil One, Bill Clinton himself.

Again I kid you not. At first I sat listening in utter disbelief, then I recalled what a little and isolated world many of these voters live in, talking only to each other, ignoring or body-blocking any reasonable difference of opinion or fact.

Now, lump all these factors together and what do you get?

Call me a chronic pessimist if you like, but in my opinion? Things aren't as rosy for the Dems as they seem.

Comments

[Gonnuts]

If voting could change things - they'd make it illegal.

I won't be a bit surprised to wake-up Nov. 8th and see that indeed, nothing changed. Except maybe for the worse.

As we speak bush is sending our Navy to the shores off Iran. I expect that one of these ships will be sunk. By them or (?) - bush orders the bombing of Iran - the ultimate "rally around the flag" ploy, voter fraud takes care of the rest.

And the nightmare of WWIII begins ...

[marblex]

DIEBOLD (tm) will deliver the coveted ,0000000001% necessary to keep the criminals in power

[Zee]

What marblex said...DIEB-OLD (thief-old) will deliver, and all the empty talking heads will need is the lamest of talking points to "explain" it.

But...."win one for the Gropers!" ha. Excellent. Maybe Mittwit the Mormon from Massachusetts will cleanse the entire party in 2008 by introducing the Mormon "Garment." (The one-piece long underwear the Mormons are supposed to wear at all times to prevent masturbation.)

[Jay Randal]

Vote fraud is the only reason the GOP holds onto power in the House, and Senate, so November election will be cooked for Repubs again!

[Maezeppa]

"Given that so many Democratic-leaning voters are – let's face it – plain lazy,"

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I strenuously object to that. Democrats are more affected by negative advertising but that's not laziness. It's something else. We don't stomach the nastiness and some of us, unfortunately turn off.

[bornagaindem]

No point in being pessimistic- if democrats don't take Congress back now they never will again. And deservedly so. Lets talk partition. That United States of Canada and Jesusland map will start looking mighty good again and as for me I say secede!!!!

[Trent Holden III]

Why does eveyone think this year will be different? They already stole 2 presidential elections (wide scale fraud). You really think they cannot steal House elections (small scale fraud). This is the same group that managed to legalize warrantless wiretaps, suspend habeas corpus, ban books like "America Deceived" from Amazon, detain demonstrators and start 2 illegal wars based on lies. The Republicans will probably lose a few seats to make it look good but maintain a majority. Then they'll invade Iran on behalf of Israel.
Support indy media.
Final link (before Google Books bends to gov't will and drops the title):
http://www.iuniverse.com/bookstore/book_detail.asp?&isbn=0-595-38523-0

[Mike Grello]

OH COME ON!!! Stop being such victims! "Oh poor me against those mean ole republicans!" It's time to cowboy up. This ain't about "our team" winning or losing, it's about the soul of America. You can't give up, you have no right. You have been pissing and moaning about what a lousy job they have been doing, well it's time to take the reigns and show that we can do it better. if they steal the election, then, this time we have to stand up and make them give it back. And if they can't manage to steal the election, then we have to work to make it impossible for anybody to steal an election again.

[willymack]

Our dear leader and his toady-in-chief aren't happy because they're nuts, although that's entirely possible. No, it's because the fix is in yet again, and the outcome of the "election" has already been decided. The ONLY thing that may prevent this is UN supervision of the next several elections-just like they do in other third-world banana republics.