'It’s unlike anything I’ve ever seen'

If I were Jeb Bush or Chris Christie or Mitch Daniels, my biggest fear wouldn't be the enormity by which Barack Obama is about to humiliate Mitt Romney at the polls, although the imminent thrashing would indeed produce a certain palsied effect; nor would my deepest angst lie in the immensely intimidating challenge of having to think of something favorable to say about Mitt every day, although such a challenge would undoubtedly have me retching with blank worry every preceding night.

No, if I were Jeb or Chris or Mitch, my biggest fear, my deepest angst, would be this: Will I even have a party in 2016? -- will 2012's internal, explosive ideological fission have left me anything to work with, to build on, to even tolerate? 

Michelle Goldberg, of Newsweek and The Daily Beast, provides a few answers. For starters, reports Goldberg, the American Family Association's Bryan Fischer says "he doesn't think abhorrence of Obama will be enough to juice socially conservative turnout for Romney in November," and from there, the direct quotes get even worse.

Iowa talk-radio's Steve Deace: "The biggest story that everyone in the media has missed this cycle is how frustrated and fed up the Republican Party base is with the Republican Party. It’s unlike anything I’ve ever seen."

And former Sam Brownback aide Jason Jones: "I just see that this election is the final battle in a long struggle between social conservatives and what we call the establishment of the party for control. This is the last time you will ever see someone like Mitt Romney even in contention for the nomination."

For some time it has been my contention that the GOP's unavoidable 2012 crackup would propel an establishmentarian revanchism, but it's beginning to look like the party's Fischers, its Deaces and Joneses, will not be denied. What remains of the GOP Establishment -- now cravenly huddled, offering moderates no hope whatsoever -- may in fact be so internally vestigial by 2013, its only escape route will be a third party.

I always believed the tea party would be forced out to form a third; now, I have my doubts. Either way, though -- whether the establishment recaptures the party, or the extremists triumphantly plant a permanent flag -- it seems inescapable that the conservative cell will split in 2013 (or thereabouts), into two distinct and formally separate ideological parties. Because Steve Deace is correct: the party's radical base cannot stand forever alienated from the party itself -- yet the moderates will also not forever roam in the barren desert. 

Comments

[Susan Zoon]

I think the Republican Party missed a valuable opportunity to burn out the Tea Party bed bugs.
They should have pressured Mitt to drop out and let Santorum have the nomination. Obama would crush Santorum with an historic landslide and then the Party could go back to the ultra conservatives and make the case that they had their way and their candidate was thrashed... so go away. Neatly cut out the cancer and avoid the firestorm of finger-pointing and acrimony that will result when Mitt is defeated with a simple,"Told ya' so."

Now, they will have to suffer the defeat of Mitt and the ire of the tea baggers- who will claim the loss was because the party did not nominate a sufficiently crazy candidate.

[Robert Lipscomb]

For about six months, I have been monitoring Rush Limbaugh and have been taken aback by the vitiol he spews for what he calls "establishment Republicans" - as opposed to "conservative Republicans". the hatred is deep, and Rush (and presumably his counterparts) are stoking the fire. I think progressives often forget that the "base" is comprised of 9often) very intelligent people who are true belivers.

Maybe it is time for Democrats and their elected officials to assert ourselves to be what we are - the true conservatives in modern America. We are upholding long-term social/government instutions: Social Security; Medicare; Medicaid, public education and so on. We embrace the new cultural norm of diversity.

We embrace a striong military, and a balanced budget. We truly are the new conservatives. I defy anyone to prove otherwise.

[mdblanche]

I can't remember where or when I saw it or who wrote it, but before the last election I read something comparing the relationship between the Tea Party and the GOP establishment to the relationship between Sid and Nancy. Nancy the boring GOP establishment became exciting and relevant by glomming on to Sid the attention-grabbing Tea Party, who she held in her thrall by addling him with the drug of hate. I didn't really buy the comparison at the time, but now that the bloody murder-suicide is close enough to see coming...

[Peter G]

I will venture to offer an alternative scenario. I will posit that a significant portion of what constitutes the Republican party's establishment and certainly their financial supporters are driven more by economic interests than ideology. If this is true a party division would put them in a powerless political wilderness for a long time to come. I believe that segment of the party just might be tempted to realign themselves with conservative Democrats. If they put their considerable resources into this they will doubtless have some success. (sorry progressives). And we all know where your best position is vis a vis the tent when you reallyhave to go.