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July 27, 2012

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Well let's see. The DOW went over 13,000 today, mainly on the higher than expected GDP growth.

Granted , it wasn't huge, but it was better than expected. This despite everything the GOP has done (or more accurately hasn't done) in order to sabotage the economy.

And have you ever seen a group of so-called patriotic Americans gleeful at what is perceived as not good news for the country?

Again, GOP controlled states laid off 1.2 million people this year, equivalent to one-percentage point in unemployment. I'm not sure about GDP. A nonpartisan web site posted analysis today that the negative effects of these layoffs are essentially over.

I know that statistics do not make for good political slogans, but simple statements like this are pretty effective arguments in real life as you talk to people one-on-one.

Obama remains a 2:1 favorite to win. The economy is about to get much better very soon, primarily because residential construction is already taking off and needs to catch up after a 6.5 year lull. Obama will get all the credit for 2013 - 2016.

In my area of mid-America construction is booming. We are rebuilding our schools ( doing geo-thermo, new windows, adding class rooms) we are part of the highspeed internet push(which has added many jobs)...and as a result home sales are up almost 30%...and to top all of that my daughter's 401K as gone from minus $ (in 2007) to close to $10,000 this year. Things are improving, but maybe slow is a good thing...great growth always seems to lead to the "bubbles" that bring s down

It is a truism of the real estate industry that the commercial real estate market trails the residential real estate market by two to three years. The residential market began going into the tank in January 2006 - 6.5 years ago. Commercial began going into the tank in mid to late 2008 and started crawling out in late 2010.

Initially, the residential recovery was stalled because of overcapacity and a knot of upside-down/distressed property. That market has been unwound, leaving a base amount of normal amount of distressed property. The residential market is now taking off again - arguably three years behind schedule to keep up with normal demand rates.

Real estate will really take off in a big way in 2013, as will employment.

American voters stuck with Reagan during a similar scenario in 2004. He did not become "transformative" until his second administration and its time of economic recovery.

So will Obama.

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