Ezra Klein quotes, and then affirms, Dan Balz and Jon Cohen's representative and seemingly unshakable "narrative" of the presidential race:
"[T]he lack of [polling] movement underscores intense polarization — about nine in 10 Republicans back Romney, and a similar proportion of Democrats support Obama — and a relatively small percentage of voters say there is a 'good chance' that they could change their minds before November."
This race could go either way. But it’s not likely to break dramatically in one direction or another.
On Klein's second point, agreed. However the second point violently conflicts with the first point--"This race could go either way"--if state-by-state polling has been correct. In fact if that polling is correct, then the election won't be anywhere near close.
Again, like it or not it all comes down to the decisive battleground states, in which Obama has held a small but consistent and statistically significant lead. It's interesting but immaterial if national polling reflects immovable polarization and a tiny percentage of persuadable voters; indeed these facts only help to confirm the thesis that the election's outcome is essentially already knowable.
If voters are polarized and unpersuadable--good. That should lock in the swing states. Even if Obama's battleground leads shrink to a mere 50.1 to Romney's 49.9, Obama would carry 100 percent of those states' electoral count, and thus the day.
And that, rather obviously, is the contradiction contained in political journalism's jackhammering "narrative" of a close, very close, ever-so-close race. The various statistical realities from the battleground states, which journalists also cite on occasion, literally do not add up to their edgy narrative.
Edgy narrative has become the substitute for accurate reporting since these days we have few reporters and way too many pun-ditz.
Posted by: Robinswing | July 10, 2012 at 03:40 PM
Actually, if anything, barring a complete collapse of the economy, i would expect the polls to widen rather than narrow. This is a point in time where Romney should be at or near his peak.
The Obama campaign's goal right now has been to create a ceiling for Romney at around 45%, which they appear to have accomplished.
Yesterday's speech on taxes was the beginning of a win over the independents campaign.
Posted by: japa21 | July 10, 2012 at 04:19 PM
What about all the voter disenfranchisement happening in battleground states like Florida and Pennsylvania? You don't have to have a driver's license to respond to a poll, but you do have to have one in those states to vote. Prevent several thousand citizens in Florida from voting and we could be well on our way to Romneyville.
Posted by: Jason | July 10, 2012 at 05:28 PM
Eric Holder has been on the case in both Florida and Texas. Months ago the Obama team set up volunteers to assist in getting voters what they need in oder to vote this fall. You could see what the republican'ts were up to and believe me there is much effort being put into not allowing the disenfranchisement of the elderly, the black, the brown and the poor who want to vote.
I am one of the new Freedom Riders who with the help of my three sons will be driving people to the places they need to go in order to get what they need to vote.
Mr. Obama was not caught flat-footed in this instance.
Posted by: Robinswing | July 10, 2012 at 07:58 PM
Robinswing, good to hear!
Posted by: Jason | July 11, 2012 at 06:17 PM