Says a new Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS News poll:
Obama holds an advantage of 6 percentage points [among likely voters] over Mr. Romney in Florida and Ohio. The president is stronger in Pennsylvania, leading by 11 percentage points....
Most paths to victory that the campaigns are pursuing include winning at least two of the states.
For all my ridicule of the American electorate's recurrent drifts into exasperating cluelessness, my confidence in Obama's reelection is, and always has been, unshakable. His persistent "edge" in most battleground states has settled into what might better be called a permanent lead. It's been that consistent; indeed, that reliable.
Why? Doubtless "his empathy and personal appeal," as the Times notes, have material weight. Yet just as weighty, I suspect, are the electorate's 1948-like distrust of the obstructionist, crisis-creating and crisis-prolonging GOP and the ordinary American voter's accelerating abhorrence of the Romney wrecking crew.
Like all political predictions, my prediction means not a damn thing. So, naturally, I'll restate it, with imitation authority and an utterly empty all-knowingness: President Obama will win by a slim popular plurality (since pretty close to half of us still blindly adore the flamboyant crisis-creation of the GOP), but crush Mitt Romney in the electoral count.