The Battle of Akingrad

PPP's sampling was small, but its conclusion was enormously suggestive:

[Todd] Akin leads Claire McCaskill by a single point, 44-43. That's basically identical to our last poll of the contest in late May, which found Akin ahead by a 45-44 spread.

Yesterday I half-jokingly noted that "if Akin previously held, say, a 48-44 lead over McCaskill, he'll plunge to a 47-45 lead." That's because to gauge the prodigiously ignorant depths of America's polarization and partisanship, they don't run flags up Peoria's flagpoles anymore. They just ask Missourians what they think.

Notwithstanding Akin's desperate lead, he's been fitted for the noose. Karl Rove's Crossroads has cut its funding of this reptile, as will John Cornyn's National Republican Senatorial Committee. Doubtless, Akin will still profit immensely from the ethically bankrupt and utterly immoral Christianist crowd, nonetheless the finance gallows loom. Crossroads' despicable, unremitting McCaskill-bashing on Akin's behalf got him where he is, and it was almost certainly needed to sustain him.

That merrier future, however, cannot mitigate this moment's ghastliness:

GOP voters dislike McCaskill so much they're not going to vote for her no matter what their nominee does. Independent voters haven't moved at all either. In May they supported Akin 45-41, and even though they don't like him on tonight's poll we still found him leading 45-41 with them.

While the GOP base is incurable, Akin's independent support will erode. Just wait a few days, to let the Rovian stench clear.

But it won't clear in other states, or in other congressional districts. In fact, it'll be enhanced by another few million, which otherwise would have gone to the reptilian Todd Akin.

Comments

[Infidel753]

Voter ID info from the sample shows that it skewed disproportionately Republican. Most likely Akin is already a point or two down in reality. His only hope now is high voting turn-out among rapists.

[japa21]

The May poll was well before the primary. Polls since the primary have basically had him up anywhere from 7-11 points, so this has hurt. And as you point out, the smoke hasn't really cleared yet.

Regarding the dollars being pulled out, I am not sure how much difference it will make in other states. Dem candidates, if they are smart are now able to tie Akin and Ryan around their opponents necks.

If the Dems don't win back the House and keep the Senate, it will be the worse case of campaign malpractice in US history.