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August 10, 2012

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I have often wondered why, when the Surrogate Campaign Unabashed Deceivers that Mitt deploys talk of Obama's failed economic policies, the Campaign does not reply with the obvious truth: since 2010 the economic policies put forward by the House are entirely Republican. Obama's policies would work given the chance. The only conclusion I can imagine is that the obvious solution to this problem requires not only Obama's re-election but also the defeat of a lot of Republican congressman. And that, as you point out, is probably unattainable. To go down this campaign path virtually admits that Obama's re-election is going to produce four more years of gridlock. And I don't think they want that to become too clear to the voting public. Else that voting public might decide that four years of Republican rule is better than four more years of stagnation. Really the best that can be done here probably is for Obama to be re-elected and hold down the fort (including SCOTUS appointments) and mitigate damage while the Republicans finish their death spiral. Which can't come too soon. If Romney can't get elected, and I agree he probably can't, then the internal civil war in the Republican party is going to accelerate to pure madness.

P.M. I still have faith that if Obama's margin of victory is big enough, he will carry the Senate with him and, in the best case, regain the House, or, in the worst case, considerably diminish the Tea Party's hold. Democrats are aware that the Senate and House are equally important and are investing considerable resources in these. I doubt that a decisive Obama victory will accompany a full-fledged Republican Congress.

I am reasonably optimistic about regaining the House and keeping the Senate.

First of all, the talk of Republican obstructionism intentionally stalling the recovery is gaining ground. It has even poked its head out of the ground in some of the media.

Secondly, Obama is well aware of the need for Dems to win the down ticket elections in order for anything to get done. I think part of the reason for the early, hard and sustained attacks on Romney are to put Romney in a can't win position.

In addition it is forcing the base to push Romney to go even more Right into the land of the crazies and to basically plead for their continued support during the convention. Anything at the convention that is perceived to be less than full wingnut will hurt Romney.

Anything that is prominent at the convention that is perceived as full wingnut hurts all the Republicans.

So after the convention, with Romney basically neutralized, the attacks will be on Republican policies in general and the sabotaging, etc that they have done the last two years.

Watch for Obama to appear in a lot of joint rallies with a lot of Congressional candidates. As hi approval goes up, they won't be afraid to be associated with him like they were in 2010 (which was the biggest mistake many of them made). Additionally, more and more people are becoming more knowledgable about ACA, which will make Republican talk about repeal become a negative for them, rather than a positive.

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