[O]ur forecast has moved toward Barack Obama over the past several days. It now gives him about a [76%] chance of winning the Electoral College on Nov. 6.
... which translates into 311 votes for Obama, and for Romney, 227.
Silver boils it down:
1. Polls usually overrate the standing of the candidate who just held his convention.
2. Mitt Romney just held his convention.... The national polls ... have shown an almost exact tie in the race.
3. If the polls overrate Mr. Romney, and they show only a tie for him now, then he will eventually lose.
And Silver, need I remind you, is the fucking prince of darkness and angel of death combined when it comes to predicting a politician's demise.
I just cannot see how Romney might change the prognosis. The electorate is remarkably settled in its preferences, and Romney's super PAC infusions will do little to change that electoral fact. Yes, Romney is yet to greatly outspend Obama, but one side's unleashing of 10,000 ICBMs against the other side's 7,000 ICBMs offers no strategic advantage--and, unlike the thermonuclear metaphor, in the warfare of a presidential contest, there must a winner.
What else does Romney have in his arsenal? He's mum on policy, he's void of charisma, he's haunted by invisible tax returns, his running mate is a laughingstock, rabid thumpers (God love 'em) think he's the AntiChrist, and the dear man is so terrified of his debate opponent he's cramming a month ahead.
Well, there's Obama's skin color. That's it. But that didn't save McCain.