It's not just that Obama leads Romney by 5 to 7 points in the vital battlegrounds--as they're still stubbornly called--of Florida, Virginia and Ohio, according to new NBC/WSJ/Marist polling; and it's not only that the polling reflects likely, not just registered, voters; and it's not merely that a meager 5 percent remain undecided--meaning that Romney must now persuade all of them just to tie Obama; and, it's not even that Obama could lose all three states and still realistically reach 270 electoral votes, whereas Romney desperately needs at least two of the states to even compete in the big electoral college game.
Naturally all those factors bring a comprehending smile to one's face. But what causes one to riotously double up as Romney doubles down is this observation from Marist's polling director, as paraphrased by First Read: "Obama’s leads are not 'insurmountable,' especially as the two candidates prepare for their first presidential debate on Oct. 3 in Colorado."
The past, as they say, is prologue, and the best indicator of a man's performance tomorrow is however he did the damn thing yesterday, and so on--all these cliches came not out of thin air (see, there's another true one). And all the empirical evidence shows that Mitt Romney is unalterably fixed on a linear, unbendable trajectory of magnificently infinite self-destruction.
Over the last two months, or give him four, or allow him even six, has Romney improved, as a politician, one iota? Does he seem more thoughtful? More personable? More relaxed? Better informed? More confident? Self-assured? In short, does he strike you as a man who, contrary to all past conduct, is suddenly, impressively capable of emerging on stage, roughly only two weeks from now, as a warm, engaging, inspiring competitor? A leader?
He'll move the numbers all right. In Obama's direction. And this isn't bias talking. It's history.
Actually, he looks less of all those items. His smirk after his press conference doubling down on Obama being apologist in chief tells a lot. He is a person who always thinks whatever he ahs done is something significant and helpful to him. For most of his life it has been. And when anything he does backfiresw, his immediate response is not to reconsider and change his pattern, but rather believe that obviously the peons don't get the wonderfulness of me, so I will just do it again but louder and they will bow down before me.
When that doesn't work he starts panicking (just what we want in a leader) and triples down, making all his bad traits stand out more.
Posted by: japa21 | September 14, 2012 at 08:45 AM
Maybe it's because I tend to ignore the Republican primaries, especially this year, but Romney seems even less thoughtful, more frustrated and less self-assured. Was he ever personable? His self-confidence is falling through the floor based on his selection of Ryan. That alone proves that he did have the confidence that he could pull this off himself.
Posted by: Joy | September 14, 2012 at 08:52 AM
I suppose there should be some way to achieve a consensus on when battleground states should cease to be called that and switched to "complete rout states" but I suspect the need for media pundits to perpetuate the close horse race meme will prevail. The Romney campaign's pop out turkey timer would seem to indicate he is done.
Posted by: Peter G | September 14, 2012 at 09:08 AM
If any of you have a way of contacting Governor Romney, please forward this to him in my behalf.
Dear Fonz,
I know quite a bit about statistics and have been looking at the various polls.
If you assume a 99.8% (3 sigma) level of confidence ...
Assume 2.5% margin of error ...
Look at the regression analysis of the trend lines
And then factor in the electoral college ....
Uuuuuhhhhhhh ......
You're fucked.
See you at the reunion.
Richie
Posted by: Robert Lipscomb | September 14, 2012 at 09:56 AM
Robert,
You cracked me up! It would seem that if Romney really is a "data driven technocrat" as he has been described by our MSM, he'd know what you know at this point. I think he does but has decided to put on a brave, confident face and soldier on to the inescapable end at which he'll deliver a concession speech, with a smirk, of course, to President Obama late on the night of November 6, 2012.
Posted by: majii | September 14, 2012 at 09:15 PM