The 47 percent's 10 percent effect

Nate Silver:

Mr. Obama’s probability of winning the Electoral College advanced to 83.9 percent in the Nov. 6 forecast, up from 81.9 percent on Wednesday.

Causation? The long answer, in Silver's words: "[A] secretly recorded videotape ... released on Sept. 17 showing Mitt Romney making unflattering comments about the '47 percent' of Americans who he said had become dependent on government benefits."

The short answer, in blunt reality: Mitt Romney.

Silver recalls that he issued a tweet advisory after the tape's release, warning that "Ninety percent of 'game-changing' gaffes are less important in retrospect than they seem in the moment." This Fizzle Effect is infuriatingly real for devout partisans who always hear in the opposition's latest blunder the explosive beginning of the dramatic end, only to watch the polls flatline.

Politics fans (as in fanatics) are much like the old Kremlinologists, examining every major player's gestures, words, syllables and inflections for decisive omens of shifting power relationships. Meanwhile the inattentively average citizen sighs, "Huh? Oh yeah that guy's running for some office, isn't he?"

Leave it to Mitt Romney to find a way around American apathy.

Comments

[Peter G]

And a way to fizzle.

[Robert Lipscomb]

Last night the hosts on MSNBC made the same 47% argumment and presented a 6-week trend graph to prove. Unfortunately, the trend graph obviously did not prove it, but that did not stop them from saying so.

It was kind of sad actually.

What the trend graph showed was a clear and distinctive break coming out of the Democratic convention. The prime speakers, including Joe Biden, did a masterful job explaining their record, their policies and contrasted that with the GOP's. Yes, Clinton had the most difficult task and did a masterful job, Michelle, Biden and obama's speeches fit tgether to creat a whole greater than the sum of the parts.

America understood the differences and began choosing Obama and the Democrats.

Midway between then and now, the 47% videotape was released which reinforced every negative stereotype about Romney, the GOP and their damnable budgets. this only fueled a continuation of the curve change.

I suspect the biggest benefit of the videotape is to backstop any reversal of the trend. What can Romney do or say to change people's opinion of him and the GOP budgets?