538's latest 270+

FiveThirtyEight's latest "now cast" shows Obama holding positive statistical territory in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

"Obama," notes Silver, "could win the Electoral College by winning Ohio, Wisconsin, and either Iowa or Nevada."

Silver adds that Obama's improved performance in the last debate seems not to have helped him much, which is no surprise, really, since political negatives possess greater staying power in the electorate's mind than positives--unless of course you're a slithering, right-wing serpent from Hell who lies so eccentrically that voters mistake your breathtaking mendacity for rediscovered passion.

However as Silver also suggests, polling stability at this point spells doom for Romney. He trails too consistently in too many swing states.

Comments

[mdblanche]

All the polls I've heard about that show Romney as even being competitive are based on record high differences between registered voters, who still favor Obama by a 2008 level margin, and likely voters. Essentially their theory of the race is that there is an unprecedented enthusiasm gap between energized Republicans and glum Democrats. But the early voting numbers are already trickling in. You can read too much into them, but they definitely don't seem to show the wide enthusiasm gap the pollsters do.

[Turgidson]

The narrative has Virginia as Romney territory now, but I can't quite figure out why. The recent polls I've seen (I admit I might have missed some) all have the race either tied or with Obama with a very slight lead.

I may be a pollyanna on this, but I consider Obama a slight favorite in any state where it's tied, because I believe in OFA's ability to outgun the GOP on the ground. This could prove to be a misguided belief when the dust settles, but they've earned the benefit of the doubt from me.

Now let's just hope this last debate is at least a draw. In a sane world it would be an epic asskicking by default given Romney's buffoonish ignorance on foriegn affairs, but as is so appallingly obvious, this ain't a sane world.