The new CNN/ORC International poll in Ohio shows Obama leading by 4 points, a drop of 3 to 6 points from pre-debate polls, but still a lead. This polling commenced only 48 hours after last week's debate.
I disagree with CNN Politics' characterization of its own polling organization's finding--"Obama's four point advantage," writes Political Editor Paul Steinhauser, "is within the poll's sampling error"--not because 4 happens to be outside the sampling error of 3.5 (hey it's damn minor, but still outside), but mostly because previous Ohio polling showed Obama with such a consistently commanding lead, it is vastly unlikely that in reality it is now Romney defying the sampling error's margin.
Oh, and that Pew poll over which Sullivan soiled himself yesterday? The poll that declared all is lost? That Paris is burning? Stalingrad's gone? And in the aftermath Sullivan asked Has any candidate lost 18 points among women voters in one night ever? And I answered No?
The CNN poll indicates ... Obama ahead by 22 points among women voters.
Of course that might be true only in Ohio, and Obama has lost all women in Florida and Virginia and Iowa and Nevada and ...
Keep in mind the timing of the CNN/ORC International poll. Within a week, we'll probably be back to 7-10 point leads for Obama.