For Romney, w/o Ohio it's Ia., Nev., NH, Colo. and Virg.--ALL

I enjoyed this entry from Nate Silver:

We are now running about 40,000 Electoral College simulations each day. In the simulations that we ran on Monday, the candidate who won Ohio won the election roughly 38,000 times, or in about 95 percent of the cases ...

... where Obama (still) leads.

Romney's non-Ohio pathways verge on the fantastic. Observes Silver, "he would need to win both Iowa and Nevada.... Furthermore, he would need to win New Hampshire to avert a 269-269 tie.... On top of all that, he would need to win both Colorado and Virginia."

Yes. And soon after, I'll be crowned the king of England.

Comments

[AnneJ]

Well then I hope I don't have to practice calling you "Your Majesty".

[shsavage]

The problem is that the voting machines in critical Ohio precincts are owned and operated by Romney Inc.

[japa21]

Ipsos is predicitng a comfortable EV win for Obama with 322 EVs.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/23/presidential-polls-2012_n_2005850.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003

[Turgidson]

The media is doing what they can to put their collective thumb on the scale. Obama's massive victory last night is being treated as a non-event in most of the coverage I've caught.

As Krugman pointed out when discussing Bush v. Gore, the media have taken sides. Once Romney "won" the first debate, they settled on a Romney surges to victory narrative and they're hanging onto it like a hungry Rottweiler to a t-bone. No matter how many polls show the surge to have leveled off for the past week and Obama leading the EC count with room to spare. They have their story and they're sticking to it.

Fortunately, Obama isn't Gore, and won't allow himself to be buffaloed by the narrative, and Romney isn't as likeable as Bush was back then.

It's a shame there were compelling sporting events on during the debate. If that had been in 60+ million homes, Obama might have gotten a noticeable bump from it. It was an epic asskicking.