Obama's greater fear

While comparing Romney's Fantasy Econ League to Obama's modest but real agenda that might "accelerate the recovery already under way," Krugman notes a common dread:

Mr. Obama may not be as bold as we’d like, but he isn’t actively misleading voters the way Mr. Romney is. Furthermore, if we ask what Mr. Romney would probably do in practice ... it looks like a program that might well derail the recovery and send us back into recession.

Chief among Romney's intended derailment measures would be the shafting of the shiftless 47 percent--those minimum-wage schemers, for instance, clever enough to luxuriate in the splendors of non-income-taxing jobs, or disabled veterans and great-grandparents now notoriously grifting on V.A. hospitals and Medicare.

Yet Republican primary voters have insisted on keeping a Democratic Senate in place, which would, almost unquestionably, obstruct Romney's "sharp cuts in programs that aid the less well-off," as Krugman fears.

The more realistic alternative of a Romney presidency is much worse, and it is this alternative, from what scuttlebutt I've read, that keeps Obama up at night.

As many (if not most) mainstream economists are predicting, 2013 will witness a more rapidly accelerating recovery than did 2012 (largely because of taller and greener shoots in the housing market, already quite visible) and 2014 will outperform 2013, and so on. This, despite the GOP's best efforts to disfigure any recovery and inflict maximum pain. Obama's early measures--most notably the stimulus program and the auto bailout--were enough to kickstart an upswing; and though he wanted to do more when their positive effects plateaued, he in fact did what he could do. The result: slow but durable economic improvements that will, over the next four years, snowball into a fuller recovery.

For which a President Romney would take full credit.

And that sure as hell would keep me--as the presidential guy who actually did the heavy lifting--up at night. Wouldn't it you?

Comments

[Robert Lipscomb]

The accelerating economy, courtesy of residential real estate, is almost a certainty, especially in light of the Fed's commitment to quantitative easing (sustained mild inflation). Because the looming tax increases initially will have the same dampening effect on the economy, Benake (after being villified by the GOP) will have legitimate economic and political reasons to keep the prime rate low for an extended period of time.

A second, across-the-board tax increase will be part of some ""Grand Deal" to balance the budget for fiscal year 2014. Again, Bernake will hold down the prime rate - helping to balance the budget, ensuring extended growth into 2016.

If only we had a credible woman to run in 2016. Of course, she would need a special husband to be the first first husband.

[shsavage]

It's looking like a done deal for Obama.

In 2008, 51.2% of Ohio voters went for Obama. Let's make our target this time 50.01% to allow for a closer margin of victory. According to news reports, at least 20% of Ohioans have already voted, and Obama leads among these by 60% to 30%. How much of the remaining vote does Romney need to capture in order to win Ohio?

It's one of your dreaded "story problems" from 7th grade algebra. Here it is as an equation, with the solution:

(.2 * .3) + (.8 * x) = .5001

.06 + (.8 * x) = .5001
(.8 * x) = (.5001 - .06)
(.8 * x) = .4401
x = .4401 / .8
x = .5501

This is very problematic for Romney because the remaining 80% of Ohio voters are split at about 45% for Romney, and 45% for Obama (10% others). Romney needs 10 more percentage points than he's likely to get.

The battle for Ohio may already be over, unless something underhanded happens to suppress the Democratic vote. And Romney will have a very difficult time winning the White House without Ohio. No GOP candidate has ever won without Ohio. Of course, that historical fact doesn't predict the future, but Obama is maintaining significant leads in most of the remaining battleground states; he only needs to win one of the remaining, and he's leading in most of them. So, for all intents and purposes, the election may already be over.

[Peter G]

Scares the willies out of me. I might even have to become religious again so I could pray for President Romney's continued good health. The only worse thing I could imagine would be something would happen to Romney and I would have to consider the implications of a Ryan administration.