He of the House specialty, Kyle Kondik, of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, bears grim tidings, which alone I might dismiss but unfortunately are only a compounding of other forecasters' grimness:
There will be plenty of drama in individual House races across the country, and there are a range of potential outcomes. But we believe that Democratic control of the House is no longer one of them.
You no doubt recall--or perhaps you no longer care to--all the proletarian rejoicing when the GOP House passed the wickedly draconian, Medicare-gutting Ryan budget, thus converting the "Ryan plan" to the Republican plan. They just gave away the House, said many, myself among them. But we forgot to account for 1) the insurmountable rigors of redistricting and 2) the insufferable rigor mortis of the Republican-voting brain, which is either on Medicare or soon will be, assuming ...
Anyway, it looks as though President Obama will inherit an eerily familiar Congress--pretty much the same old House and an even more radical GOP Senate minority, both of which will likely be yelping that Mitt Romney lost only because he was too damn liberal. This, on the face of it, does not bode well for a robust presidential agenda. The irony may come, however, in an even more robust agenda--or at least abundant fireworks--if Obama chooses to take his assorted cases to "the people." And with no reelection possible (a first-rate Constitutional imbecility, second only to the 18th Amendment), he might as well go all in.
My guess? He will indeed agitate, because the House and Senate minority will indeed obstruct. But, remember, I also predicted the GOP would lose the House this year.
I believe Wang is still saying there is a 16% chance of Dem recapture of the House. Not great but not nonexistant.
It is definitely true that any GOP majority will be deeply eroded.
And I have no doubt Obama will get more aggressive on many things.
Posted by: japa21 | October 25, 2012 at 01:01 PM
All this beggars the question, "What is more difficult, pushing a GOP House or pulling a Democratic Senate?"
Posted by: Robert Lipscomb | October 25, 2012 at 01:33 PM
Depressing news but not unexpected. More depressing in an immediate way is the fact that I just tried to access Silver's blog and was blocked. Apparently the free ride is over and one must subscribe. Maybe it's just me.
Posted by: Peter G | October 25, 2012 at 01:42 PM
I just got on without a subscription. Maybe it's because you've used up your free quota for the month -- but that's of the full-text blog posts. If you Google "538" and click into the site you should be able to see the first few paragraphs of each post, plus all the charts running down the side.
I click in every day -- yeh, I'm masochistic like that -- and despite having gotten the "You've used up your freebies!" message last month, I could still get to the front page of the blog.
Posted by: Janicket | October 25, 2012 at 03:40 PM
Right you are Janicket. Which is a relief since I'm also somewhat addicted to that site.
Posted by: Peter G | October 26, 2012 at 08:16 AM
resulted in the end of his time in power. I stand firmly bnihed my previous thinking and find that Jay Reding's thoughts on the matter are not dissimilar to my own: There is no excuse for corruption. Not cleaning house
Posted by: Nagaraj | November 07, 2012 at 09:46 PM