Silver's "best guess" is good enough

Nate Silver's statistical inclinations continue to harmonize with my gut instincts:

[I]f you want my best guess: Throughout this election cycle, you would have done very well by predicting that the polls would eventually settle in at an overall lead for Mr. Obama of about two percentage points. Whenever his lead has been larger than that, it has come back to earth.

At the moment Silver has Obama leading by slightly less than 1 point; double it and Silver's current prediction of Obama's Electoral College status of 287 goes northward of 300.

Mandate, baby. Of course Obama could sweep all 538 E.C. votes and Republicans would still dispute the practical reality of it. But, to be fair, Obama could win with 270 E.C. votes and, right along with the president, I would gleefully declare a mandate, just to stick it to those bastards.

Comments

[Robert Lipscomb]

If Obama is elected and Dems retain control of the Senate but the GOP maintains control of the House, many wil lament Obama's ability to be effective. Not true.

First of all, that means ObamaCare is good for another four years making it irreversible.

Second, there are many very important actions that can be taken as regulations and executive orders.

Finally, Obama will be in a stronger position negotiating with a GOP House over taxes and debt reduction because he can be be more politically heavy-handed with them than he was able wit the so-called super-majority during his first two years.

[Robert Lipscomb]

Now pushing 3:1.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner