Nate Silver's statistical inclinations continue to harmonize with my gut instincts:
[I]f you want my best guess: Throughout this election cycle, you would have done very well by predicting that the polls would eventually settle in at an overall lead for Mr. Obama of about two percentage points. Whenever his lead has been larger than that, it has come back to earth.
At the moment Silver has Obama leading by slightly less than 1 point; double it and Silver's current prediction of Obama's Electoral College status of 287 goes northward of 300.
Mandate, baby. Of course Obama could sweep all 538 E.C. votes and Republicans would still dispute the practical reality of it. But, to be fair, Obama could win with 270 E.C. votes and, right along with the president, I would gleefully declare a mandate, just to stick it to those bastards.