Stagnant--or reverse--momentum

Here's what "Momentum" actually looks like, after being rescued from the Romney camp's Orwellian Gibberish Machine:

Mr. Romney gained ground in just one of the [national tracking] polls.... He lost ground in five others, with President Obama improving his standing instead in those surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained about one point between the eight polls.

And if you think I'm sarcastic, here, again, is Nate Silver: "What isn’t very likely ... is for one candidate to lose ground in five of six polls if the race is still moving toward him."

Comments

[Robert Lipscomb]

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election

[Robert Lipscomb]

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-president-12

[Robert Lipscomb]

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

[Janicket]

I like Rand's methodology. It makes a lot of sense.

And I REALLY like their results.

[shsavage]

From Ohio: "Obama takes 49 percent support over Romney at 44. Among those who say they have already voted, Obama leads by a 2-to-1 margin, 60 percent to 30 over Romney. Among voters who say they intend to vote but have not yet voted, the candidates are tied at 45."

In essence, this means the election is already over. The path to a Romney presidency without Ohio is extremely difficult to envision.

[Robert Lipscomb]

@Janicket: Obviously, I do too, but I wish they would do a regression analysis to smooth the curve.

Because they have 7 seperate sample groups that they poll, once each, every 7th day,it is obvious that one, maybe two, group is heavily right wing. That probably means the other six are slightly left-leaning - thus the need for regression analysis.

[Suzanne Holland]

Thank you! I need to know hope!!