Prior to reviewing Gallup's almost flamboyantly inaccurate findings, Nate Silver says this of its current poll showing a 7-point national lead for Romney:
[I]ts results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race....
Other national polls show a race that is roughly tied on average, while state polls continue to indicate a narrow advantage of about two points for President Obama in tipping-point states like Ohio.
I've ceased almost entirely my referencing of individual polls. As well, I now regularly ignore findings from the right's Rasmussen and the left's PPP. To me, partisan polling aimed at partisan feel-good findings is as pointless as feel-good commentary--both serve a purpose for which I readily admit a complete lack of sympathy or understanding. Celebratory, feel-good commentary is as fundamentally misleading and inherently dishonest as its polling counterparts.
Having said that, I just as readily admit a ruthlessly definitive pro-Obama slant to my commentary. But please be advised: I write in a positive vein about President Obama because I genuinely believe he's done just about the best possible job doable--not because I'm a partisan or a polemicist or a propagandist, you know, like Rasmussen.
I don't necessarily disagree with you, PM, but ...
Raz has long history of weighted polls UNTIL THE ELECTION GETS CLOSE. At that point, they actually get pretty damn accurate.
PPP and Raz are showing quite comparable results in the most polling areas (OH, WI, PA, CO and others). The outliers here are Gravis and a whole herd of boutique pollsters. Mostly right wing, and mostly to game the system.
If I were in the business of aggregating polls, I'd drop everyone but PPP and Raz at this point.
Posted by: DerFarm | October 18, 2012 at 09:00 PM