The latest NBC News/WSJ/Marist polls--which, for all you unskewing conspiracy theorists, surveyed more than twice as many self-described conservatives as it did liberals--show Mitt Romney, in Ohio, having surged by ... 2 points.
That leaves Obama ahead by 6.
In Virginia, Romney has gained 3 points since last week's debate, however he and the president remain statistically tied.
For the sheer Sturm und Drang of Wuthering Heights blowback from Denver, however, there's this from Florida: Before, "it was a 1-point race with Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent." Now, with the dramatic debate having hefted the old and heaved in the new, Obama leads 48 to 47. Breathtaking.
All this on the dawn of Biden's woodshedding of Ryan tonight. This time, the Obama camp knows what to expect. Ryan could materialize as anything from a Randian Skinhead to a Democratic Socialist; such pre-knowledge provides Biden with a devastating, counteroffensive battleplan.
Knowing what to expect is, as I am sure you know, much more than analyzing the debate. I am sure that the Obama campaign has done extensive surveys about what and why people feel about what Romney said; and the same for various counter-punch lines.
For instance, I hear the word, "dishonest", a lot from the campaign. That seems to be as close to "liar" as is acceptable, but it serves the same purpose. "Dishonest" also encapsulates concepts such as flip-flops, spin, hiding and candor. I wonder how much money and effort went into identifying that word.
The media wrongly portrays Biden as a loose cannon, which he is not - at least not in the minds of most voters. He is seen as a sincer guy that sometimes gets a little too honest while talking. But people trust him and like him. He is very smart and a talented debater. All this makes him the perfect guy to call out the snake oil salesmen of the GOP.
The future viability of Neo-Reaganism is on the line tonight - not Obama.
Posted by: Robert Lipscomb | October 11, 2012 at 09:26 AM
RELEASE THE BIDEN!
Posted by: susan zoon | October 11, 2012 at 09:31 AM
Traditionally, the VP is supposed to be the bad cop, and this fits into what the post-debate debacle Obama campaign seems to be doing. Obama has always preferred to stay above the fray, so I'm looking (and hoping) the Biden will be released...without being too gaffetastic. Ryan has to defend the "moderate" version of Romney vis a vis the Ryan budget and what it actually does. That alone gives Biden skads of opportunities to separate fact from fiction.
I admit that I was alarmed at how Obama wasn't just off his game in Denver, but how he sat back and got rolled by a lying sack of sh*t. From what I've read, and from what I've observed of Obama since then, he appears chastened by what happened, and is ready to swing back. He always has done well when his back is against the wall, and he's about there now. I think he was ultimately guilty of underestimating just how far Romney would go to reinvent himself...even if it meant that Obama would have to look to his left to see him. He had prepared to debate far right "I am not a RINO" Romney, and ended up facing a MAssachussets moderate Republican. That iand maybe being tired and overconfident left him in a massive brain freeze and he never recovered.
I am cautiously optimistic that he won't let that happen again, and that Biden will put Ryan on the spot and make him ask the real Romney to stand up
Emphasis on "cautiously."
Posted by: thecommodore | October 11, 2012 at 11:08 AM
@thecommodore:
Nothing wrong with being cautious--smart move, actually.
I only wonder if there will be a focus on the facts, and if Ryan will be allowed to get away with distorting the truth so long as he looks stylish doing so.
Posted by: Marc McKenzie | October 11, 2012 at 11:34 AM
Ryan isn't really known for style as much as he is wonkishness, unless you want to call his "aw shucks/Eddie Munster" manner style. Still, Biden being Biden outclasses him on style from the get-go, and part of Biden's style is calling bullshit when he sees it. He just has to be careful about how aggressive he is in doing that. Many people - myself included - believe the Obama campaign is dangerously close to the ledge as a result of last week, and if Biden is too aggressive, he may look desperate, and while he may be factually correct in what he says, he will lose on optics, and optics count for everything in these debates (see last week).
Sullivan thinks that while VP debates historically have ended up not meaning much, this one does. I won't go as far as to say that Obama "forfeited" last week, but the fact is many Dems are demoralized or plain freaking out, and if Biden can effectively expose Ryan and the real Romney agenda without being "too Biden," this one just might steal back some momentum.
But in the end, it's up to Obama.
Posted by: thecommodore | October 11, 2012 at 11:55 AM
Biden should have two goals: cheerlead for the President's policies and contrast them against the intransigence of the Republican Congress. Leave it to Ryan to try and sell Romney. Biden should make Ryan's GOP comrades the issue of the night.
Posted by: Chris Andersen | October 11, 2012 at 01:37 PM