« "Offensive" | Main | Silver's "best guess" is good enough »

October 17, 2012

Comments

I caught that last night, and I must agree with you, P.M. that in the case of undecideds voter suppression is completely appropriate.

But why in the first place PM do these weak links control the outcome ?

Because 45% of the nation is in thrall to the right wing delusion, which means most of us are misinformed, unengaged, unknowing.... it pretty much means you have a problem with democracy in America....

My sense after the first debate was that the right-leaning but uncommitted voters saw enough for them to jump in with both feet for Romney. I also suspect there is a subset of undecideds whose vote will depend on to whom they last spoke, and many of them followed the crowd toward Romney.

I expect a similar dynamic coming out of last night's debate toward Obama. The follow-up spin will influence alot of the previously mentioned subset of persuadables.

It was telling that town hall format yielded but one (I believe) foreign policy question. That is a good because it probably means the electorate is satisfied with Obama, but it might also mean the electorate takes the current good news for granted.

Romney continues to mine this field. I suppose he is looking for an October surprise. That is not likely, and the final debate seems well positioned solidify a majority of the undecideds.

Both campaign's micro-messaging seems to be pretty sharp. Romney seemed to use his to make tactical missteps last night, primarily via setting up straw men (such as acts of terror and the 47%) in failed efforts to knock them down).

I expect to see a significant shift toward Obama in polling by Friday, leaving Romney in a deep hole with a short time to climb out.

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election

All representative democracies suffer from the same problem. That is true because every human population contains a substantial number of people who simply do not trust their own judgement. Such people are the bane of my professional existence. A carefully crafted opinion weighing the pros and cons of a specific technical proposal will be met with dithering indecision even when the pros vastly outweigh the cons. Second opinions will be sought. And third opinions. And if these differ even slightly, as they must when one weighs professional opinion, rivers of angst will flow but no decision will be made. I do not think it is entirely fair to call such people low information voters. Many are loaded with information but lack the critical faculty to assess it.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Recent Posts and Archives



  • to P.M. Carpenter's Commentary




  • to P.M. Carpenter's Commentary