The bad news is that Florida--the single greatest state beneficiary of New Deal and Great Society and Obamian social programs, from Social Security to Medicare to ObamaCare--remains a geopolitical monument to exceptional human ignorance.
Sure, Romney & Ryan would re-blow holes in Medicare's prescription drug program and they would end ObamaCare's free preventive care for seniors and they would butcher the financial security of Florida's present retirees' younger brothers and sisters and children and grandchildren and great-granchildren. But that's OK. Floridians just don't like black Democratic presidents; so much so, they're willing to vote against their own interests and to betray their own families as well as countless generations of coming Americans.
Or, as Nate Silver puts it, "The forecast model continues to give a slight edge to Mr. Romney in Florida.... [T]he polls in Florida have historically done a good job of predicting the result."
The good news, however, is more uplifting than the bad is dispiriting. From a week's worth of polling, Silver's conclusion is twofold: "Romney is no longer improving his position in the race," and ...
Whether Mr. Obama has any momentum of his own ... is less clear. To me, it looks more like a gradual reversion to the mean than anything all that assertive.... Obama has led in the polling averages all year in states that would allow him to win the Electoral College, and that remains the case now.
In sum, the debates, especially the first, were but a neurotic disruption in the short run and merely a historical curiosity in the longer term of the Obama-continuum--thus still suggesting that Americans' marginal sanity will, in 10 days, prevail.