Ezra Klein's 'Wonkblog' has a nifty roundup of notable EV predictions, from Nate Silver's serviceable 303-235, Obama (here, my apologies, for earlier I cited Silver's 315 to 223, but, according to Klein, that was not, alas, his final count--now Obama's at 332, Silver is in perpetual flux); to Ross Douthat's mortal conservative sinfulness of Obama by a hair, 271-267; to George Will's laughably puckered "Romney 321, Obama 217."
My unshakable bottom number for Obama is 281. I prefer conservative estimates, since they can only improve. Nonetheless, I repeat, that estimate is not exactly a prediction. My prediction is: I haven't a clue, other than that Obama will win. And since a win by 11 points is as valid as a win by 110 (because no mandate, even a real one, will pacify GOP absolutists), Obama's actual margin of Romney-extermination makes little difference ...
... in the short run. In the longer arc of history, yes, a decisive Obama victory would be interpreted as the body politic's 21st-century imprimatur of communitarianism over atomism. For the moment, though, we're all just trying to get by, one day at a time, until the pseudoconservative madness demographically dies out.
Larry Sabato, of UofVA, who is usually pretty conservative (not the political type) in his estimates, has Obama with a floor of 290. His upper level is 332.
Posted by: japa21 | November 06, 2012 at 10:45 AM
Sounds about right. I teach at a conservative Christian university in Texas. Yesterday, I asked my students, regardless of their political leanings, who they would wager to win if they had to place a bet. By more than a 2 to 1 ratio, they predicted Romney.
Tomorrow's gonna be interesting.
Posted by: Jason | November 06, 2012 at 11:05 AM
This polling website also predicts Obama capturing 290 electoral-votes http://www.pollheadlines.com/2012_election_predictions.html
Posted by: Erin Johnson | November 06, 2012 at 11:11 AM