President Obama is now better than a 4-in-5 favorite to win the Electoral College.... His chances of winning it increased to 83.7 percent on Friday.
There were 22 polls of swing states published Friday. Of these, Mr. Obama led in 19 polls, and two showed a tie. Mitt Romney led in just one of the surveys, a Mason-Dixon poll of Florida.
Actually, at 83.7%, it's 5 out of 6; Nate got this wrong, too. It's the same as picking a number from 1 to 6, then casting a die expecting your number to be on top.
Posted by: R. Jacob | November 03, 2012 at 01:26 PM
Key points:
"My argument, rather, is this: we’ve about reached the point where if Mr. Romney wins, it can only be because the polls have been biased* against him. Almost all of the chance that Mr. Romney has in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, about 16 percent to win the Electoral College, reflects this possibility... If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can’t acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public."
*No, that does not mean what Dean Chambers thinks it means.
Posted by: mdblanche | November 03, 2012 at 03:10 PM