Nate Silver sees an alignment of the planets (finally):
Based on the simulations that we ran ... Obama would have an 85 percent chance of winning the Electoral College if the popular vote were exactly tied nationally.... As of this writing, on Sunday evening, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.3 percentage points across 12 national polls.
It appears Silver is somewhat breathing a sigh of methodological relief:
The consolidation between the national polls and state polls ... removes a source of structural uncertainty — the chance that the [FiveThirtyEight] model was not a good representation of the real world.
Elsewhere, buried in Ezra Klein's morning 'Wonkblog' email was this tweet, from The Center for American Progress' Michael Linden: "Is Obama pulling away in Virginia? 9 polls over the last week and weighted avg (by sample size) has him up 2.4%."
Well, that's Romentum for you, although political slogans such as "Romney Fever, Catch It!" don't generally double as a political health advisory.
"Romney Fever"? No thank you, it sounds near-fatal.
Posted by: AnneJ | November 05, 2012 at 11:42 AM
As I have had occasion to post elsewhere, Mitt has enormous momentum. Unfortunately for him and Ryan it is all of the angular variety. Spinning, spinning, endlessly spinning....
Posted by: Peter G | November 05, 2012 at 11:48 AM