Ye little olde blackmail shoppe is hereby closed for future business

Krugman sees presidential promiscuity as having spoiled the children rotten:

Mr. Obama essentially surrendered in the face of [Republican extortion] at the end of 2010, extending low taxes on the rich for two more years. He made significant concessions again in 2011, when Republicans threatened to create financial chaos by refusing to raise the debt ceiling. And the current potential crisis is the legacy of those past concessions.

In 2010 and 2011 I was of two minds, first conciliatory, then unbending. Economic fragility and the offsetting sweeteners of payroll tax cuts and an extension of federal unemployment benefits made Obama's 2010 concession to the Bush brackets a virtual no-brainer, notwithstanding the professional left's vapors. Would the economy have suffered had the upper-end cuts expired? Empirical evidence answers with a resounding No; however the lower-end cuts, plus payroll reductions and unemployment benefits, were indispensable in their stimulative effects. Hence the compromise was valid from an economic standpoint--and politically speaking, the president needed the confidence of independents.

Yet in the debt-ceiling crisis of 2011, I turned uncompromisingly hardass. In my scarcely isolated opinion the debt, as a hostage, was non-negotiable. The 2010 deal was merely old-fashioned horsetrading: distasteful and unquestionably imperfect, but nonetheless serving the overall good. But raising the debt ceiling? A traditionally bipartisan piece of essential housekeeping? To render an imperative of routine governance an object of infinite blackmail seemed an act of madness. The blackmailers would be back, year after year after year, dictating not essential fiscal housekeeping, but national policy ... on, well, anything they want. We either hand it over, or the country gets it.

To rather understate matters, that's both an unsustainable system and a thoroughgoing repeal of constitutional government. One might skirt a little devastation here and maybe an apocalypse there--for a while. But make no mistake: the hoodlums would be in charge, "mobocracy" would have a whole new meaning, and ultimately it all--all of it--would come crashing down.

I remain convinced that Obama would have won a "clean" debt-ceiling showdown. When he finally took to the bully pulpit--mostly to explain that raising the ceiling was about meeting present obligations, and not indulging future extravagance, as many mistakenly believed--he began turning popular opinion to his favor. But, a deal was cut, the hostage was released, and here we are.

I'm equally convinced that Obama won't make the same mistake twice (and it would be twice, not thrice, as Krugman and the progressive camp are arguing). A fiscal cliff? More of a slope, as many are pointing out. And Obama holds the high ground.

Comments

[japa21]

We'll find out soon.

[Peter G]

I am equally convinced that a clean bill raising the debt ceiling was not possible because Boehner very evidently had little influence with enough of his caucus to make that possible. And I have the evidence to back that up. Look a little farther back to Wall st bailout under Bush. How many Republicans supported an even more critical piece of legislation than raising the debt limit? And that was before the advent of the tea party caucus. The Republicans then were content to let the Democrats take the heat for an absolutely essential depression averting bill. The tea party had no such pragmatic political excuse. There's no way the Republicans would have broken ranks to pass a clean bill raising the debt ceiling. Not when they could blame all the adverse consequences of not doing that on the Obama administration.

[Peter G]

By the by, I agree that the blackmail shop is closed. The adverse consequences are not severe enough to pressure the administration into making any deal the Republicans would like. Any big cuts in military spending would be diffuse in terms of congressional districts and the Republicans would have just as much trouble with that at home than the Democrats. There's just not enough hurt there to give the Republicans a winning hand.

[Robert Lipscomb]

Yesterday I posited a fast-track of legislation for Obama. Based on what i am hearing, I suspect things will happen even quicker.

Look for Obama, Reid and Boehner to pass some version of the Dream Act sooner rather than later. That will enable the Establishment Republicans to knee-cap the Tea Party/cultural warrior/conservative Republicans, serving as the opening shot across the bow for their civil war. It also neutralizes this issue with Latino and even asians prior to the 2014 elections.

Remember all the debt ceiling/Grand Bargain negotiating details are "pre-negotiated". So, it's a matter of counting votes. Understand that virtually all congressional Democrats are now Obama-Democrats. He has their votes in his backpocket. And again, Boehner is probably looking to roll Tea Party/Conservative Republicans as soon as possible - before they know what hit them.

Also, Reid has enough Progressive Democrats in the coming senate to revamp senate rules. They are on board to eliminate the obstructionist-serving senate rules.

[Susan Zoon]

"Also, Reid has enough Progressive Democrats in the coming senate to revamp senate rules. They are on board to eliminate the obstructionist-serving senate rules."

Thanks, Robert... oh please, please, please let them start by getting rid of the "super-majority".

Also, I think we're going to see the birth of "honey badger" Obama.

Lastly, sorry I missed all of the fun here during the election. I just got my telcom back today after being dark from Sandy for 12 days. No damage to hearth and home, just downed trees. It was rough sledding not being able to get any information during the election that was not media tainted... aka RADIO.
Missed you guys.

[PM]

So glad to hear you're safe, SZ.
--PM

[Robert Lipscomb]

@SZ: Glad to hear you are A-OK.

As for the rules, it is to the point that Reid and Durbin are publicly gloating about it.

[Peter G]

Welcome back Susan. I hope all your neighbors fared as well. It was a great show and I'm sorry you missed it but politics never ends and in many respects the fall out from the election is even more fascinating than the election itself.

[janicket]

Welcome back, Susan! I hope your path to recovery runs smooth.