A surprisingly naive comparison from Greg Sargent:
I really wonder whether these types of cultural issues [God, guns, and gays] are losing their peril for [Senate] Democrats. Remember, many predicted that if Obama embraced gay marriage, he risked a backlash among culturally conservative voters that could put his reelection at risk.
How losing already lost "culturally conservative voters" could have cost President Obama reelection is beyond me; furthermore, how President Obama could have ever lost reelection to the stunningly inept Mitt Romney--short of suddenly stripping naked at a debate and reciting Allen Ginsberg poetry--is, and to me always was, beyond even the most direly unimaginable.
But for Sargent to compare a presidential campaign, which can exploit vast voter cross-sections of the U.S. as a whole, to upcoming Senate campaigns--in culturally homogeneous inescapabilities such as Montana, Arkansas, and South Dakota--is just astounding.
Yep. There may have been a window for getting a modest set of gun regulations through the Senate, if not for the unfortunate fact that a large enough number of the Democratic caucus to block even a simple majority vote are gearing up for reelection in very NRA-friendly environs.
As nice as it is to see a conservative like Manchin say sensible things, he just won a full term and can say things that upset the NRA for a year or two without realistic threat of reprisal. Not so for Baucus, Johnson, Pryor, Landrieu....
The "conversation" on guns may be less of an insincere sham than usual this time, but I would not bet on it resulting in any meaningful legislation at the federal level. The NRA will hunker down for a while - they're too politically savvy to assume a high profile right now - but it has enough allies on Capitol Hill to slow-walk any attempt at quick action until the outrage and raw emotion of today fades and politicians, again, conveniently forget to do anything.
And while I'm very much in Obama's corner on most things, I don't think he has it in him to see this battle through, for fear it will sap his political capital to get other things done. The fact that a small, crazy, but vocal and well-armed minority of this country has thought since day one that he wants to take their guns away doesn't help, either.
Posted by: Turgidson | December 17, 2012 at 02:05 PM
Well I think the idea that the right has about Obama is out to get their guns, may be turning into a self fulfilling prophecy. What I'd like to know is, if everybody is armed, how do you tell the good guys from the bad guys?
Posted by: AnneJ | December 17, 2012 at 03:28 PM