The GOP is dead, long live the Conservative Party

Ezra Klein writes that "it’s clear now what Plan C is going to have to be: Boehner is going to need to accept the simple reality that if he’s to be a successful speaker, he’s going to need to begin passing legislation with Democratic votes." That, however, portends a vanishing post-Jan. 3 scenario for the speaker-cum-speaker, for "a conservative spoiler ... could very possibly deny Boehner the 218 votes he needs to become speaker, clearing the way for a more moderate candidate like Eric Cantor to unite the party."

After choking down the deployment of both "moderate" and "Eric Cantor" in the same sentence, let's entertain another, longer-range and fundamentally deeper possibility--that of a Plan D. 

For starters, whoever the next speaker is--Boehner, Cantor, Kevin McCarthy or any other compromise candidate--his reign will come pre-packaged as a political catastrophe. If on any piece of House legislation he's able to rally the radicals to vote with the moderates, the legislation must by inexorable definition be unacceptably radical to the Democratic Senate and president--for otherwise the radicals would have been un-rallyable. Hence any "successful" Republican speakership of the 113th Congress is almost certainly doomed: no sober, sane legislation will ever make it out of the House, while all the wacko tea-party stuff will never make it through the Senate or to the president's desk for veto.

Here's a Plan D, however, which I concede that at the present has as much chance of lift-off as Louie Gohmert receiving an honorary doctorate from Harvard, but, perhaps, somewhere down the road ...

Whatever the true number of House Republican moderates is--authentic conservatives, that is, in the mold of Ohio's Steve LaTourette--that number could caucus in the 113th Congress as the Conservative Party, just as the tea partiers have their own narrowly partisan label. Further, these moderates (dutifully organized for the advancement of the nation's welfare, rather than nihilistic intransigence) could openly cooperate with the Democratic minority and thus promise passage of any obstructed sanity--if only they, in a kind of temporary fusion with House Democrats, were allowed to vote on responsible legislation. They'd be denied by the Republican leadership which remained beholden to tea partiers, but Conservatives would have made their move, have issued their bid.

Politically, House moderates--the Conservatives--have more to lose than anyone. It is they, many coming from purpled swing districts, who, as a result of an increasingly despairing electorate, are the more likely ones to find themselves unemployed in 2015. But should they begin caucusing now in the embryonic form of a conscientious, separatist Conservative party, they'd do both themselves and the nation some immeasurable good.

Comments

[japa21]

Just out of curiosity, is there any rule that the Speaker must come from the majority party. Since we are in the realm of fantastical thinking, would it not be possible for Pelosi to run and peel off enough Republican votes that she would be Speaker? I am assuming she will be the nominee of the Dems.

Like I say, since we are dealing with the impractical, let's go all the way.

[Janicket]

Nice fantasy, my friend, but for any Republican, voting for The Demon Nancy She-Devil Socialist From Hell would be the death knell for one's career.

[AnneJ]

Eric Cantor reasonable? He's worse than Boehner, maybe even worse than McConnell in the senate! They are terrorists and I thought we don't negotiate with terrorists.

[japa21]

Janicket, as I said, we are in the realm of fantastical thinking.On the other hand, election simply requires a simple majority of votes cast. If it is her versus Boehner and enough Republicans refuse to vote, she could get trhough.

Oh well, fantasies are nice up to a point.

[Peter G]

Maybe they've got some sort of messiah that they managed to keep under wraps lo these many years butI certainly haven't heard of him or her. Who exactly is it that can unite the Republicans? Certainly not that pissant cantor.

[Chris Andersen]

We've been waiting for it for a long time, but I think we may soon be approaching the final crackup of the Republican coalition. I understand from people who follow behind the scenes rumbling in Republican circles that the more sane members of the party are seriously starting to talk about the "Whigging" of the party.

If the "Conservative" caucus does form as suggested here and does start to coalition with the Democrats (through discharge petitions) than I think they would be as persona-non-grata in the GOP as if they had voted for Pelosi to be speaker.

[Peter G]

Erickson actually had a good line in one of his posts. He said it wasn't the end of the world they were predicting. It was just Boenher's horoscope for today.

[Thurman Williams]

Yeah, they tried that here in Kansas, and were massacred in the last election...