Another whole new war

Diplomatic channels are narrowing, ambassadors are being recalled, groping communiqués are taking on grim colorations, and menacing ultimatums are no doubt being drafted. Mobilization cannot be far off.

Yet those irrepressible optimists at the White House see a "possible path" to peace--that of "restart[ing] talks with Congress on an overarching agreement that would lock in deficit reduction through additional revenue, changes to entitlement programs and more spending cuts, to be worked out by the relevant committees in Congress. But this time, those talks might start in the Senate." Another example of generals always fighting, or preparing to fight, the last war.

Yes, the Senate, where easygoing, carefree, life-of-his-party Mitch McConnell yesterday re-declared "that Republicans view the debt ceiling increase as an 'immediate opportunity' to achieve significant spending cuts." No mention was made, it should go without mentioning, of "additional revenue." Meanwhile, over at the House, an aide to you-can't-fire-me-'cause-I'm-done-talking Speaker Boehner said "As far as we're concerned, the tax issue is off the table."

Are we sensing a theme here?

That theme, though, isn't what worries most, although a spending-cut spree in the bloody aftermath of perpetual, lower-revenue maximization is troubling enough. No, what convulsively worries is nothing much new; it's little to do with the cloven-footed cliff deal's fiscal specifics. It has to re-do, rather, with Republicans' Nietzschean-inflated cajones and profoundly nihilistic will to power, while their chief opposition persists in deluding itself that it's negotiating with the Grand Old Party.

Comments

[Robert Lipscomb]

All punditry now hold an erroneous opinion as certifiable political scientific fact: A reelected president's political capital will peak on the day of his reelection and disappear by Labor Day.

This is demonstratively not true.

Under similar (no analogy is perfect) circumstances, Reagan was reelected during the recovery of from a bad recession. Yet, he signed a major overhaul of the tax code in the summer of the second year of his second term. I make no predictions about Obama's success, but there are two possible (probably?) soources of increasing political capital over the next year-and-a-half.

Nothing succeeds like success, and Obama has enjoyed one political success after another since the summer of 2011. The latest negotiations are perceived as a win for Obama and will continue the upward trajectory of his popularity (political capital). By breaking out deficit reduction (please note i doubt he intends to eliminate the deficit by the time he leaves office), he is creating the opportunity for a series of "wins" - and increasing approval ratings.

It is very likely that the economy will continue to improve, employment will continue to go down and housing will improve for the next several years. Again, increasing approval ratings.

So, he has considerable winds to his back to be holding a great deal of political capital by the summer of 2014.

What he does with that capital is another issue.

[Beulahmo]

Will these guys never have to suffer the peoples' wrath? How I would love to see them have to deal with the kind of angry town hall meetings we saw in 2009! How long can they continue until the pitchforks come out?

[Peter G]

Of course that would be Boehner's and McConnell's negotiating position. What else could it possibly be? And if the president decides to take an extended vaccation while the Republicans waterboard the world economy and piss in the cornflakes of every single demographic group that votes Republican, from retirees to corporate executives, what might be the expected result?