It’s unclear why Republicans think they’ll have more leverage on the debt ceiling in April — they can hardly explain it themselves.
Well, I'd be delighted to take a whack at it.
Republicans will have more leverage in April for the same reason that President Obama has more leverage now: They will have demonstrated "reasonableness" in a prelude to crisis. Default? Toppled credit? National ruin and global destruction? Heaven forbid that our country's delicate flower of fiscal responsibility would ever do such a thing. No, the GOP was reasonable, you see--so reasonable, or so its argument will go, that it forfeited an ideal chance to restrain Obama's intolerable profligacy.
After which the party tried its best to reason and work with the man. Oh how it labored on our fiscally conservative behalf. Yet Obama wouldn't listen, he wouldn't budge, he wouldn't be reasonable. So by April it was back to the ceiling's drawing board--praise Jesus, another ideal chance.
Unless of course Obama does listen and is content to come to many of the GOP's entitlement terms, which would be worse than a short-term default, and which would accomplish precisely what the GOP originally desired--and all without ever defaulting. Because the party proved itself "reasonable."
This is a trap, and it's a really nasty one. Such is my take on it. When has the modern Republican Party ever proved itself trustworthy or honorable or in any way genuinely concerned with the welfare of the American people? When has even its own survival translated into virtue?
Any three-month deal is only a ruse by which it reserves the right to inflict maximum damage later. It's what the GOP does. It's what the GOP is.
The trap isn't about the debt ceiling. They gave away all their leverage there.
Its a trap on a government shut-down over the budget. That one is coming...bet on it. And they're hoping this "cave" wins them some "we're reasonable" points.
Posted by: Smartypants | January 19, 2013 at 01:38 PM
I am reluctant to ascribe super-powers to a political party that has been on a steady decline since the 2004 elections, and arguably since the 1988 elections. Just a year ago, Rove was still a super-genius in the eyes of Democrats.
Yes, they did a masterful smash-and-grab in 2010 while the country was in the depths of a depression and a complex healthcare bill turned into a scary boogie-man. Yet, that was only a temporary counter-offensive, like say, the Battle of the Bulge.
Listen to and read the thoughts of their party's big thinkers, such as Brooks and Scarborough, and you know that they know that the current House GOP couldn't organize a gang-bang on a troop train.
If you want me to believe they are capable of doing something terrifying stupid - mission accomplished. If you want me to believe they could pull off "The Night od the Long Knives" - I'll believe it when I see it.
If only 18% of the country thinks you have your shit together, that means half of your own party thinks you suck.
Who knows? It could happen. Cortes took down an empire with 560 soldiers, but they seemed to have not been bat-shit crazy.
Posted by: Robert Lipscomb | January 19, 2013 at 02:14 PM
I'll take a whack at it too. The current situation sucks. It could hardly get worse. It might get slightly better if they, the Republicans, can use the time to construct some messaging campaign that allows the illusion of Republican Party unity to maintained a little bit longer.
Posted by: Peter G | January 19, 2013 at 02:46 PM
Seriously PM, how can time change the Republican's fundamental problem. They want cuts to cherished social programs but they need to force the Democrats to do it. They even bring themselves to state what cuts they require lest they receive the political blame for them. What leverage will they ever have to make this happen. A bluff called and shown to be a bluff?
Posted by: Peter G | January 19, 2013 at 03:02 PM
How many times does Obama have to say he wants to cut entitlements before you'll believe him?
Posted by: wtf | January 19, 2013 at 08:34 PM
I'm with Lipscomb: the GOP uh, "brains" are just barely making it through each day, forget about any kind of plans for the future. Every morning they must wake up and say, "oh, shit; another day of just trying to survive! Let's just delay making any real mistakes and blame everything on Obama. That'll ensure that we see the sunrise tomorrow, and that's all we can hope for at this point."
Seriously, PM. Those clowns know they're hosed and they are praying for a miracle. Not one of their own making, mind yÓu, because they are too hated and too locked-up by their own ideology to flex for any solutions, but they hope nonetheless. In the meantime, who's ever gonna call that "reasonable" and be taken seriously?
This ascribes too much brainpower to the clearly stupid.
Posted by: josh | January 20, 2013 at 11:37 AM