I don't believe in miracles

I'm somehow missing the radiant warmth supposedly emanating from Republicans' fiery cave(-in).

Krugman, for example, is gleeful about his miscalculation:

I thought that by ruling out any way to bypass the debt limit, the White House was setting itself up, at least potentially, for an ignominious cave-in. But it appears that the strategy has worked, and it’s the Republicans giving up. I’m happy to concede that the president and team called this one right.

Krugman was wrong in his calling for some gimmicky settlement of a debt-ceiling crisis (such as a $1t coin), and he is probably just as wrong in largely assuming that the crisis has passed.

And Chait, who generally has better political judgment, issues a curious ruling:

The whole key to making Obama’s extortion-squelching plan, and saving American government from endless cycles of hostage drama that would eventually end in a default, was to credibly insist that he would not trade anything for a debt ceiling hike.

... such as endless cycles of hostage drama. The WH itself, just a few days ago, asserted that "a monthly extension is drama" and we're "not a third-tier economy that goes month to month or every half year and casting doubt on whether or not we’re going to meet our obligations." So going every half year is unacceptable, but going half of every half year is victory?

What transpired yesterday was essentially the Krauthammer/Norquist Solution. The former:

The more prudent course would be to find some offer that cannot be refused, a short-term trade-off utterly unassailable and straightforward. For example, offer to extend the debt ceiling through, say, May 1, in exchange for the Senate delivering a budget by that date....

Not much. But it would ... keep the debt ceiling alive as an ongoing pressure point for future incremental demands.

And Norquist:

Republicans ...can give [Obama] debt ceiling increases once a month. They can have him on a rather short leash, you know, here’s your allowance, come back next month.

In short, Krauthammer and Norquist are betting that House Republicans are as crazy as House Republicans have routinely appeared to be, and the left is betting that House Republicans have almost miraculously regained their sanity.

I don't believe in miracles.

Comments

[Jim Milstein]

Well, here's the thing: If my beloved party keeps the debt ceiling coming up every few days, the voters, who already hate them, will hate them even more.

Koch Bros. & al. are withdrawing support for this. What's in it for the GOP? They may be crazy, but they aren't stupid, . . . are they?

[Robert Lipscomb]

During the W administrations, I finally and reluctantly internalized a hard truth. People, including voters, do not being told they made a mistake. In the immediate aftermath of a decisive electoral statement, the GOP House is telling Americans, among other things, they made a mistake by electing Obama and endorsing his vision (thingy).

Contrary to what the likes of us like to think, the House Republicans are not an ideological monolith. I am guessing about two-thirds of them recognize that are stuck between the prospect of losing a primary because they are not crazy enough and the prospect of losing a general election because they are too crazy. Now two-thirds of those are in safe districts, but even those who survive are looking at becoming a permanent minority. Who wants that?

A monthly, bi-monthly or tri-monthly debt-limit fight would look a lot like General Grant in Virginia.

[Peter G]

I have been thinking about this. Could the intention of the Obama administration be to draw the principal sting of a failure to raise the debt ceiling, the massive uncertainty it will engender, by making these dramas so mundane they cease to be dramatic. How often can the Republicans take a hostage they dare not shoot and continuously prove it without becoming a joke. Either they attach unacceptable conditions to it or they don't. Little steps put them in control of the showdown but when do they expect to find the perfect time to try and deconstruct SS and Medicare?

[Robert Lipscomb]

@PeterG: BINGO!

I also think, Obama will opportunistically look for chances to cut small deals. To repeat myself yet again, we are already pretty far along toward a sustainable level of deficits; closing the gaps with taxes and/or spending cuts must be implemented slowlyto avoid stalling the recovery.

Winning a series of small squirmishes not only increases Obama's political capital, it lengthens his political relevancy which pushes back his lame duck status.

Obama would love to slowly push the GOP backwards until the 2014 elections, at which time unemployment will likely be below 5%. It will also be time to begin dancing the FY 2014 Budget Cha Cha Cha.

[Betsy]

I haven't heard the WH response to this latest proposal? I know Pelosi said no, odd PBO respond yet?

[Betsy]

*damn IPAD, should read "did" not "odd"!