It appears Republicans' debt-ceiling threat is collapsing more quickly than Tim Geithner can say "default." As Greg Sargent observes, the gloomy Newt Gingrich and the even gloomier Wall Street Journal have been heaving opprobrium on the lobotomized tactic--and let's recall John Boehner's insistence two years ago that swapping America's credit for default is a really dumb idea which "would be a financial disaster not only for our country, but for the worldwide economy"--and now, even National Review's editors seem to grasp its knuckledragging enormity:
Republicans should recognize that the prospect of default is the Democrats’ chief weapon in their campaign of [austerity] avoidance. That prospect is not a source of Republican leverage in the debt-ceiling fight; it is the primary source of the Democrats’ leverage.
Good grief, even the House's tea party caucus seems increasingly to comprehend; just listen to their sudden evasions about all things debt-ceiling related and watch their diseased saliva drip as they alternatively fantasize about killing a Continuing Resolution. A nostalgic, good old-GOP-fashionable government shutdown, now that's the ticket. In effect they can have their nihilistic cake, and eat it, too.
As for evading national default, though, Obama, as luck with all great presidents would have it, is benefiting from the desperation or stupidity of others. I have mentioned this curious connection between presidential luck and greatness before, only to receive even curiouser emails in outraged response--as though luck in reference to President Obama is some sort of thoughtless put-down, or worse, a racist put-down. This utterly bewilders me. Historians universally agree, for instance, that the "great" president Thomas Jefferson lucked out in stumbling on a very agreeable real estate deal with the desperate Napoleon, or that the even greater Franklin Roosevelt had the martial gods in his corner when Hitler stupidly declared war on the United States, thus relieving Roosevelt of the insurmountable task of inserting an immensely reluctant America into Europe's war. While both instances--and there are many others--reflected enormous luck for the two white guys, they also diminished their authentic "greatness" not one notch.
As for Obama, he is now hitting with no little luck a kind of bifecta. His extremist opposition is both escalatingly desperate and prodigiously stupid--which, as luck would further have it, are characteristics generally inherent to political extremists.
In general, when I have heard people describe Obama as lucky, it is the context of saying he has no real skills. In the sense you use the word lucky, you are more accurate.
There are some things beyond the specific control of any one individual as they try to achieve specific goals. Luck does play a role. One could say that Bush was lucky 9/11 occured, else he would not have been able to fulfill his dream of invading Iraq.
Unfortunately for us and the world in general, he was not competent enough to do the job he wanted to do efficiently.
Obama's graetness, if you will, is his ability to take advantage of what luck has given him and even, to a great degree, utilize what luck has given him to expand his playing field. Luck has provided him with, as you put it and "escalatingly desperate and prodigiously stupid" opposition. What he has been able to do is increase the desperation which highlights the stupid.
Luck is important. Being able to take advantage of the opportunities luck provides is even more important, and the great ones have that skill.
Posted by: japa21 | January 15, 2013 at 10:14 AM
japa21:
You took the words right out of my mouth.
While the stupidity of Obama's opponents might be a result of luck, their desperation often comes at the hands of a very skilled politician.
p m carpenter:
To have some validity, you might some day comment on one of PBO's failures as a result of him being unlucky and a success as a result of skill.
Posted by: Smartypants | January 15, 2013 at 11:00 AM
Agreed with japa21 - Obama's detractors usually call him "lucky" to find another explanation for this or that success or victory and to deny Obama any credit. Critics both left and right do this daily.
Great presidents are almost always "lucky," in a highly, painfully ironic way, because they are forced to deal with crisis situations and succeed in navigating them effectively. Bill Clinton was a responsible steward of the nation in foreign and domestic affairs, but did not have any severe crises to handle, which partly explains his middling ranking on the all-time lists. You could say the same for a number of others, of course. Crisis is the crucible in which greatness is usually forged.
(again, japa21 nailed it. GWBush had a window to be a great president via 9/11 and faceplanted so tragically badly the entire world shook)
Obama has been lucky in his adversaries in many instances. Alan Keyes, Mark Penn as otherwise-formidable foe Hillary's top strategist, Sarah Palin, Mittens, idiot Teabaggers, etc. He's also "lucky", if you can call it that, that he's had crises to deal with, and deal with them he has. Not perfectly enough to satisfy the lefties who need their unicorns NOW DAMMIT NOW, but well enough that he's on a path to a good-to-great legacy at present. And his "luck" in having crises to confront gets him nowhere without having copious smarts and skill with which to deal with them. We know what can happen when a "lucky" president blows it - that just happened.
Posted by: Turgidson | January 15, 2013 at 12:36 PM
I enjoy watching the Tea Party construct one Maginot Line after another; only to see Obama step over it; followed by the construction of the next Maginot Line.
1. Cave during 2010 lame duck session
2. Cave in 2011 debt ceiling stand-off
3. Get the hell beat out of you in 2012 election
4. Cave in 2012/3 Fiscal Cliff stand-off
5. Cave in 2013 debt ceiling stand-off
6. Hey, let's shut down the government and throw a party!!!
What's next ... a Zoolander walk-off?
Posted by: Robert Lipscomb | January 15, 2013 at 12:42 PM
As a lifelong fan of P G Wodehouse and his wonderful literary creation Jeeves, I have always been big on the psychology of the individual or even the organization. Luck? It is always with us or against us and I will not dispute its existence but I will also maintain that luck only gives you opportunities. It does not give you success. Now I think the president has been rather deft at exploiting the opportunities luck has given him.
Posted by: Peter G | January 15, 2013 at 01:19 PM
Smart presidents are skilled at managing the stupidity of others.
Unlike many politicians, Obama tends to hold all his cards rather close to his chest-- so his motives or game plan (to everyone's frustration) isn't always apparent to supporters or opponents.
But based on his performance the past four years, I'm reasonably confident history will show him as successfully managing The Stupid.
Posted by: MinneapolisPipe | January 15, 2013 at 01:21 PM
As I commented a while ago, I'm looking forward to his memoirs. Should be an interesting read.
Posted by: JTL | January 15, 2013 at 02:52 PM
Most excellent analyses above; can only chime in to agree that luck without the skill to exploit it is meaningless.
Posted by: Janicket | January 15, 2013 at 04:04 PM
Peter G,
As a fan of Wodehouse myself (thanks to my father's Jeeves addiction), I was wondering what you thought of Stehpen Fry and Hugh Laurie's portrayal in the televised version?
Posted by: MinneapolisPipe | January 15, 2013 at 05:25 PM
Well M, I have the entire collection on CD. And finer casting there never was..
Posted by: Peter G | January 16, 2013 at 06:20 PM
PG,
Agreed. The very first episode was slightly rough going because you could see the actors were getting used to their roles.
But after that, they were spot on. I couldn't imagine anyone one else playing the roles. Hugh Laurie's smirk encapsulates the entire "aristocratic wastrel" character.
Posted by: MinneapolisPipe | January 17, 2013 at 12:53 AM