The Carpentariat

Biden is crushing it, while would-be competitors are badmouthing it

My unyielding conjecture is that the plodding herd of Democratic would-be presidential competitors — Sherrod Brown, Deval Patrick, John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, Mike Bloomberg, Mitch Landrieu, Eric Holder — has managed to throw political journalism into a frenzy of doom-feeding, perhaps journalism's most cherished avocation.

That is, the doom hangs emphatically over the existing passel of Democratic competitors, while the bright hope of salvation lies only within the competitively forsworn — those invisible pols who still want to be president and whose falsely frantic leaks to the press have the latter pumping out dreary copy on the existentially dreadful.

The NY Times now has the Washington Post doing it:

After 10 months of campaigning and 15 hours of nationally televised debates, [an] emotion is rising: anxiety. Party leaders and activists are citing weakness in all of the leading contenders, including former vice president Joe Biden, who has been forced on the defensive about his family’s ethics, performed haltingly in debates and set off alarms with his poor fundraising. They also fret that the two other top-ranking candidates, Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, are too liberal to win a general election. Other candidates have had moments to shine, but none yet have fully transformed that into anything approaching momentum.

Right — but Brown, Patrick, Kerry, Clinton, Bloomberg, Landrieu or Holder could!

Meanwhile, back in the real world ...

Former Vice President Joe Biden's lead in the race for the Democratic nomination for president has rebounded, and now stands at its widest margin since April, [according to the widely respected pollster SSRS, rated "A-" by 538].

Biden has the support of 34% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters…. [Warren and Sanders] are about even for second, with 19% and 16%, respectively.

So much for the would-be competitors' fabrications of candidates' weaknesses, especially Biden's.

The ultimate deterrent for teenage wrongdoers

We should cease imprisoning youthful criminals and, in long-term confinement's place, just make them watch this video over and over, for hours on end. They'd never offend again, for fear of an encore showing.   

My favorite phrase in Trump's presumably pre-scripted babble: The permanency of Middle East peace is somewhat questionable. Yes, and Willie Sutton was somewhat of a bank robber.

The squalid totality of Trump's betrayals

Ambassador William Taylor's testimony (pdf) before Congress reads like a Shakespearean tragedy, a twisted tale of Tom Clancy intrigue, a Mario Puzo account of mob-family degeneration. Or, as Taylor puts it, his is a "rancorous story about whistleblowers, Mr. Giuliani, side channels, quid pro quos, corruption, and interference in elections."

He then added, "in this story Ukraine is an object" — a political plaything for Trump, not a proud sovereign nation under Russian siege and American assistance. 

But if one had to characterize the entire, sordid yarn in just one word, that word would be, unquestionably, betrayal.  

The subplot of Taylor's story involves, of course, himself as the betrayed. He accepted the ambassadorship to Ukraine only on the condition, as promised by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, that Trump was wholly committed to militarily aiding the country against Russian imperialism. 

Pompeo’s promise proved a lie. In his moving account, Taylor writes that the truth of betrayal thundered home in a profoundly personal way on the day after Trump’s infamous July 25th call to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky — a transcript of which Taylor was denied. On July 26th, the American ambassador stood with Zelensky on Ukraine’s embattled front, thinking, “Over 13,000 Ukrainians had been killed in the war…. More Ukrainians would undoubtedly die without U.S. assistance.” 

Just days before, Taylor had learned — from the Office of Management and Budget — of Trump’s extortionist hold on military aid. “I realized that one of the key pillars of our strong support for Ukraine was threatened,” he testified. With Trump’s kicking away of that pillar, so too was America’s word. For personal gain only, the U.S. president had converted our word, in a different sense, from “honor” to “betrayal.”

Which soldiered on — wholesale. Some of Trump’s betrayals victimized the guiltless, such as Taylor’s predecessor, Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch. She was “treated poorly,” he testified, “caught up in a web of political machinations both in Kyiv and Washington.”

To that we must add more of the singular as well as the aggregate: from national security adviser John Bolton (now there’s a humdinger of an “innocence” twist) and assistant Fiona Hill and America’s global reputation to the war-weary people of Ukraine. 

Most of Trump’s victims, however, deserved the presidential betrayal they’re getting. They’ll each go down, to one hell or another, while the faithless serpent who dragged them into this squalor — and who will presently sell out each one of them — will simply stroll away, as the situation now appears. 

Facing probable indictment are Gordon Sondland, the U.S. ambassador to the European Union; Kurt Volker, the U.S. special representative for Ukraine; soon-to-resign Secretary of Energy Rick Perry; White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney; and perhaps most deservedly, that immensely unhinged globetrotter, Rudy Giuliani.

Mike Pompeo, we can at least hope, faces impeachment and the possible ruination of his political aspirations. (Merely "possible," since one never knows about corruption-attracted Republican voters.)

Let us also hope that the next chief executive honors Ambassador William B. Taylor with the Presidential Medal of Freedom.

Trump's seven prodigious lies in just 91 words

Count 'em:

We went through hell, my administration. People were destroyed, their lives were destroyed. Not one person colluded, they found nothing. There was a DNC server that never went to the FBI, it was taken by somebody. You hear about Ukraine. I hear Clinton was involved; I hear somebody who wrote the fake dossier was out of Ukraine. I would like the Attorney General to find out what’s going on. We’re investigating corruption. I have an obligation to do that, we have an obligation to investigate corruption. That’s what it was, corruption.

That's his story, he's sticking with it, and tens of millions will buy it.

(Odd, is it not, that Trump's principal concern — corruption — was the one topic he didn't raise by phone with Ukraine's President Zelensky.)

Help the ASPCA — dun Subaru for 10 bucks

Meet the Underdogs, the hardest-to-adopt shelter dogs. As part of National #MakeADogsDay, you can help support all Underdogs by buying them something from the @ASPCA Charity Lists. For every item purchased, Subaru will donate $10, up to $250,000.

— Subaru (@subaru_usa) October 22, 2019

I bought a "nuts for knots" ball — $13 — for a neighbor's dog. 

A groundswell absent the swell

The NY Times' Jonathan Martin reports, as they say, breathlessly:

With doubts rising about former Vice President Joseph R. Biden’s ability to finance a multistate primary campaign, persistent questions about Senator Elizabeth Warren’s viability in the general election and skepticism that Mayor Pete Buttigieg, of South Bend, Ind., can broaden his appeal beyond white voters, Democratic leaders are engaging in a familiar rite: fretting about who is in the race and longing for a white knight to enter the contest at the last minute.

Oh, my. I didn't know. But just who are these "Democratic leaders"?

Six, a mere six, mind you, "Democratic donors [who] gathered at the Whitby Hotel in Manhattan last week." And sad to say, "the mood of alarm is even more intense because of the party’s hunger to defeat President Trump."

"'There’s more anxiety than ever,' said Connie Schultz, a journalist who is married to Senator Sherrod Brown," who would like to be president. "We’re both getting the calls," added Schultz. "I’ve been surprised by some who’ve called me."

Mr. Brown, who nearly entered the race earlier this year, said the pressure on him to reconsider from labor leaders, Democratic officials and donors has "become more frequent." And Deval Patrick, the former Massachusetts governor [who would like to be president], said he too has been nudged by friends to reconsider.

"I can see it, I can feel it, I can hear it," said Mitch Landrieu, the former New Orleans mayor who would also like to be president.

Mrs. Clinton and Mr. [Mike] Bloomberg [both of whom would like to be president] have both told people privately in recent weeks that if they thought they could win, they would consider entering the primary.

Former Secretary of State John Kerry and former Attorney General Eric Holder — two others who would like to be president — have considered jumping into the primaries.

Are these the people you'd really want to ask about potential competitors' — Biden and Warren's — prospects?

Jonathan Martin is. He's an eager-beaver mammal who is closest to the cliché used by wingers on both sides: "the lamestream media." Aside from the Times, he's been with Politico, the National Journal’s "Hotline," National Review magazine, and "has appeared frequently on television and radio as a political analyst and commentator, including on CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC, PBS, MSNBC and NPR."

All of which is to say, the man knows how to peddle sensationalist politics, most of which is useless. The Times should be ashamed to have a "national political correspondent" who so superficially fails at reporting on significant national political developments.

The absolute crap that Trump's base hears, sees

Mark Levin: "While [Trump's] been president there hasn't even been a hint of scandal. Not a hint." pic.twitter.com/XjD3yu0Tci

— Jason Campbell (@JasonSCampbell) October 22, 2019

Trump condemns the Constitution

In denouncing the impeachment inquiry as a "lynching," the president of the United States is also declaring that the U.S. Constitution is anti-due process, unfair, and somehow illegal.

Ponder that for a moment: The president of the United States is openly branding the U.S. Constitution as illegitimate.

(Then again, since the Constitution's Article II, Section 1 enabled him to "win" the presidency by losing, perhaps Trump has a point.)

Trump's "lynching" - just more of the same rot

This isn't the first time. From 2015:

"@ellenEspence: @marklevinshow Thank you for maintaining your integrity during this disgusting lynching of @realDonaldTrump" Thanks Mark!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 22, 2015

Today:

So some day, if a Democrat becomes President and the Republicans win the House, even by a tiny margin, they can impeach the President, without due process or fairness or any legal rights. All Republicans must remember what they are witnessing here - a lynching. But we will WIN!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 22, 2019

If any Republican agrees that the impeachment inquiry is indeed the equivalent of a lynching, it would be the first justifiable lynching in recorded history.

There is no need for any extensive analysis of Trump's metaphor, in which every major media outlet and countless pols and commentators will engage. Let it suffice that this bloated, White House-haunting creature is simply a vile, unspeakably rancid little Beelzebub of a man, unworthy of any public office.

The price of impeachment?

At the Constitutional convention in 1787, James Madison advocated an impeachment clause as a weapon to defend "the Community [against] the incapacity, negligence or perfidy of the chief Magistrate." The word perfidy was, to Madison, broadly inclusive in meaning: disreputable behavior and manifest unfitness for office sat side by side of high crimes.

Elbridge Gerry, an antifederalist who also opposed the Constitution's ratification for its lack of a Bill of Rights, nonetheless believed that a "good magistrate will not fear [impeachment]. A bad one ought to be kept in fear of them."

Though disreputable behavior is, in many circumstances, a debatable subject, there's an American consensus on Trump's — and the consensus includes even his supporters' damning opinion, as extensive polling has repeatedly shown. The judgment of his manifest unfitness for office is more partisan, but objectively — in the colloquial — come on.

Simply put, Trump is impeachably, twofold perfidious as well as "highly criminal" — i.e., "do us a favor, though." And he's screamingly terrified of any and all steps to impeachment, which has had the most unpleasant effect of causing Trump to be himself:

"I have to fight off these lowlifes at the same time I’m negotiating these very important things," he said to reporters at a cabinet meeting yesterday.

Little other than "lowlifes" — the People's House's majority — is so characteristic of the president's disreputable behavior and appalling language.

And God help us if he's still negotiating "very important things." Indeed the Donald is not quite connecting here; one invaluable byproduct of the inquiry proceedings should be that he's too busy fighting impeachment to botch anything else of importance.

"When do the Do Nothing Democrats pay a price for what they are doing to our Country, & when do the Republicans finally fight back?" said another, characteristically deplorable Trump tweet Sunday night.

The question of an aggressive Republican counterattack will likely remain unanswered until the Senate trial, which reportedly has been pushed by House Democratic leaders to early next year.

As for the price question of do-nothing House Democrats — who time and again have attempted a series of somethings, only to be kiboshed by Stonewall Mitch — my level of fear is roughly equivalent to Trump's. Rank-and-file Republicans' enormously shameful defense of this racketeering president has been immovable, unchangeable, prodigiously despicable and vastly unAmerican.

And so it has been for three years-plus. With so much inculpatory evidence already outstanding, why would five, 10 or even 20 more drops of unmistakable Trumpian guilt make any difference?

Odds are, they won't — not in the minds of pigheaded pseudoconservatives. Hence my fear is that purple Dems, in 2020, will pay a price greater than Trump's.

A metric suggestive of an America frighteningly on the edge

Americans support *beginning the impeachment process* by a 52.3%/42.9% margin. That's very close to Trump's approval rating split.

Support for impeachment per se is slightly lower, though. 48.2% support, 43.9% oppose. pic.twitter.com/ZXiaLn06ab

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 21, 2019

If the "opposed" percentage were 20 percent, 25 percent, even 30 percent — that I could interpret as a measured sign of a somewhat rational nation. But 44 percent suggests a nation populated by nearly as many cretins as civic-minded citizens. And cretins are more aggressive than everyday folks, thus disproportionately powerful. (Hitler's democratic support, for example, never exceeded 43 percent.) So even though a plurality supports impeachment … yes, you're damn right I'm afraid for America's future.

Trump's base holds

According to a new survey by the Public Religion Research Institute, 93 percent of all Republicans were, in mid-October, still opposed to Trump's impeachment.

Anyone of reason might think that virtually all the GOP subgroups would just want him gone by now, given the possibly irreversible damage he's done to the party.

Yet here's a subgroup that not only doesn't want him gone, but hopes he's around for another four dreadful years: "white evangelicals were among the voters most likely to want Trump on the [2020] ballot, at 82 percent." (Make that 82 percent of white evangelicals plus 100 percent of all conscious Democrats.)

What's more, "nearly two-thirds of white evangelicals said Trump has not hurt the dignity of the presidency."

Perhaps you recall when President Obama once merely donned a tan suit and Republicans of all stripes fainted in outrage; the harm that that man (read: black man) had done to presidential dignity was incalculable.

The good news, of sorts, is this passage from Atlantic's Emma Green:

"Only 29 percent of registered voters told PRRI that they would vote for Trump in the 2020 election, no matter who becomes the Democratic nominee. By comparison, 40 percent of registered voters said they would support the Democratic candidate no matter who it is, while 29 percent said their ballot remains up for the taking."

I say "good news, of sorts," only because a rather hefty 29 percent remain undecided about a tax cheat, known felon, inveterate swindler and Constitution molester.

Trump gets his hand slapped

"Conservative allies," reports the Washington Post, had to inform Trump over the weekend that his own political party was intensely opposed to his Doral-G7 plan because of appearances, their already burdened defense of the serial grifter — and the now-overlooked trivia of a Constitutional violation.

Another way of outlining the weekend's change of plan is that congressional Republicans were too gutless to tell him themselves. Which was the greater malfeasance? Trump's grifting or the GOP's cowardice?

But it was acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney to the rescue, telling "Fox News Sunday" that the Catastrophe of 45 "still considers himself to be in the hospitality business." Okay!

Now back to those "conservative allies": They had to tell Trump what every American already knew, minus 2 — that "it was a bad idea for Mulvaney to make [the statement] in public," as the Post puts it.

The plan wasn't such a bad idea on Trump's part, though, excluding, you know, Constitutional trivia. As the Post reported in mid-May: "In two years [since 2015], the resort’s net operating income — a key figure, representing the amount left over after expenses are paid — had fallen by 69 percent."

As always, Trump accepted no responsibility for the uproar:

....Therefore, based on both Media & Democrat Crazed and Irrational Hostility, we will no longer consider Trump National Doral, Miami, as the Host Site for the G-7 in 2020. We will begin the search for another site, including the possibility of Camp David, immediately. Thank you!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 20, 2019

In truth, according to the Post, "Trump had waved off concerns from advisers who said hosting world leaders at his club would not play well," and later he changed his mind not in reaction to crazed Democrats but "in response to pressure and frustration from his own party."

Meanwhile, Mr. Trump is heartbroken — not because he's made a fool of himself, not because he's facing unemployment in 12.6 months, and not because he painfully yearns for America to "get over" his Constitutional violations, which, well, sort of hit the fan, too. He's heartbroken because "I thought I was doing something very good for our Country" by huckstering his failing Florida resort.

Newly unearthed presidential letter

I had a beautifully written appeal to you, the everyday, or most everyday, reader, who has yet to financially support this site. But lady fortune somehow devoured that elegant entreaty. And I am not up to reproducing it.

So I'll be blunt.

Give now or you can kiss this site goodbye.

Is that direct enough? I know it's honest enough. It's the incontrovertible truth. And yet how do I convince — maybe — first-time contributors to support the site?

I can only rely on the comment above. In advance, I welcome your gift. 

An easy one. Any guesses as to where I've been for the last two weeks? 

An early flight — 6am. I shall return tomorrow morning