The Carpentariat

An astonishing gift from the Russians to Ukrainian soldiers (and the offsetting damage being done)

​​​​​Mitch McConnell and three other Senate Republicans visited President Zelensky Saturday in Kyiv as Congress is trying to complete passage of President Biden's $40 billion mili
tary and humanitarian aid package for Ukraine. The NY Times notes that the visit "highlight[ed] the widespread bipartisan support for Ukraine in Washington as the country tries to fend off Russia’s invasion" (emphasis added).

Said McConnell: "Helping Ukraine is not an instance of mere philanthropy. It bears directly on America’s national security and vital interests that Russia’s naked aggression not succeed and carries significant costs." He went on to say that "if Ukraine fails to repel Russian aggression, there is no question that the threat to American and European security will grow."

There was, however, no need for the Senate minority leader to tell us that. Rather, Sen. McConnell needs to firmly instruct Sen. Rand Paul — teach him about Russia's unprovoked aggression against Ukraine and how that aggression adversely affects the United States and all of Europe. Vladimir Putin's 2022 invasion of a neighboring, democratic nation could, if not thoroughly repelled, lead to invasions of other European nations, with which the U.S. is militarily aligned. The old Cold War could become a nail-biting hot war, causing untold deaths, including those of American soldiers and citizens.

Yet Sen. Paul has objected to an immediate Senate vote on the aid bill — which is certain to pass by an overwhelming margin — absent a provision establishing an inspector general's supervision of funds dispersement. His objection has delayed the bill's passage by several days. It will pass, but, one must ask, What next? What other objections will Paul raise to other Ukrainian assistance bills out of ideological intemperance? There are sure to be several more proposed by the White House, and each one will bear the urgency of today's.

And today's is especially urgent. Having routed Russian forces from the Kharkiv region, as of Saturday Ukrainian forces began centering a counteroffensive in the area around Izium, from which Russia hoped to advance southward and then encircle Ukrainian troops in the Donbas. Russia's "advance" is not going well. And the disgruntled reaction back home, writes The Institute for the Study of War, might well spread throughout the population. This, from the institute, is a newly breathtaking revelation about the Russian military's utter ineptitude:

The Ukrainian destruction of significant elements of a Russian motorized rifle brigade that tried to cross a pontoon bridge over the Siverskyi Donets River [near the Izium front] on May 11 has shocked prominent Russian milbloggers [military bloggers]. Those bloggers have begun commenting on the incompetence of the Russian military to their hundreds of thousands of followers. The attempted river crossing showed a stunning lack of tactical sense as satellite images show (destroyed) Russian vehicles tightly bunched up at both ends of the (destroyed) bridge, clearly allowing Ukrainian artillerymen to kill hundreds and destroy scores of vehicles with concentrated strikes. The milbloggers who have hitherto been cheering on the Russian military criticized Russian armed forces leadership for failing to learn from experience in the war. They also expressed the concern that the constant pushing of Russia’s propaganda lines was making it hard for them to understand what was actually going on.

The effects of this change in tone and discourse by these milbloggers are uncertain but could be potent. People living under tightly censored regimes often trust individuals who seem to be independent of but generally aligned with the government more than the government line (even more than do citizens of democratic societies). The commentary by these widely read milbloggers may fuel burgeoning doubts in Russia about Russia’s prospects in this war and the competence of Russia’s military leaders (at least).

The destruction of the motorized rifle elements may also severely disrupt Russian efforts to isolate Severodonetsk and Lysychansk from the north. Russian troops made no attempts to advance in that area in the last 24 hours.

The very latest military analysis is that Russia has once again reduced its objectives, this time to only the Luhansk province.

What was it that allowed "Ukrainian artillerymen to kill hundreds and destroy scores of vehicles with concentrated strikes"? What was it that has slowed Russia's advance to the south and has now caused the aggressor to reset its territorial sights? What was it, fundamentally, that portends Russian citizens' discontent? It was military aid from the West — heavy equipment such as artillery that came substantially from the United States. And this, Sen. Paul has impeded just when Ukrainian soldiers need it most; that is, as they counterattack Russian forces trying to move southward to the Donbas.

Rand Paul has betrayed not only Ukraine, but the U.S. and all of Europe. President Putin would pin a medal on him if he could. Hence McConnell needs to have a long and exceptionally serious talk with Paul. Maybe slap him around a bit. Or a lot. 

Technical problems should be over with by tomorrow. Or at least that's my hope. Typepad is working on it. See you then.

A little bragging. (Very little, 'cuz I had nothing to do with this.)

Astrophysicists at my second alma mater, the University of Illinois, Champaign-Urbana, helped in providing "the first direct visual evidence" of this black hole at the center of the Milky Way. Pretty cool, ain't it? 

Its gravitational pull is four-million times greater than the Sun's. Oh, and the beastly thing is 27,000 light years away from Earth, which would be daunting to even Jean-Luc Picard. 

Putin is either a master of irony or a meathead

Sweden confirmed today, as Finland did yesterday, that it will apply for NATO membership. Noting parliament's "broad majority" support for joining the Western alliance, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson told reporters that Sweden will be "in a vulnerable position" until the membership process
is complete.

It should also be noted, however, that the UK signed a military security agreement with Sweden and Finland last Wednesday. So, some "vulnerability," but not unilateral vulnerability.

In addition, the danger of a Russian attack in the interim, between application and membership, is virtually nil, especially since the Russian Army, at this point, would be hard pressed to successfully invade Liechtenstein.

Finnish President Sauli Niinistö talked with Vladimir Putin by phone on Saturday and characterized their conversation as "calm and cool." He said that Putin — almost unbelievably — told him that NATO membership "would be a mistake, since there is no threat to Finland’s security."

One wonders if the Russian tyrant simply enjoys playing games of comic irony, or if his brain is melting.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow would "follow very carefully what will be the consequences [of NATO's expansion] for our security, which must be ensured in an absolutely unconditional manner."

Everyone, of course, already knows the consequences. Realistically, Russia's security will be altogether unaffected. Rhetorically, Russia will cluck like a frenzied goose.

Meanwhile, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said "the fact that Finland and Sweden’s security will not be strengthened as a result of this is very clear to us." But they "should have no illusions that we will simply put up with it" — their actions are "another grave mistake with far-reaching consequences."

Finland's prime minister, Sanna Marin, had a straightforward and dispositive retort for all of Russia's goons, propagandists, hardliners and warmongers. She told parliament, as it readied to debate NATO membership today, that "the only country that threatens European security, and is now openly waging a war of aggression, is Russia."

And if Russia is genuinely worried about Russia's security, it should look inward. Rarely has one nation so willingly, singlehandedly and stupidly weakened itself.  

Still having technical issues here. Typepad is working on it. If you have had problems accessing this page, would you leave a comment, adding what state you're in? That might help Typepad track down the source of the issue. Thanks! 

*** Well, two hours later and no mentions of problems elsewhere. No news is, in this case, bad news.

Tucker Carlson and "The Great Shithole Theory"

​​​​​The following passage is from The Passing of the Great Race, a 1916 work about "Nordic superiority," written by eugenics advocate Madison Grant. Hitler later praised Grant for his racial "analyses." Although the book is a fascinating historical artifact of the era's "100 Percent Americanism," contemporarily it could be confused for a Tucker Carlson monologue and his ravings about the Great Replacement Theory. The only rhetorical adjustment Tucker would make is that of the "European" designation, which he would change to Trump's "shithole countries."

Unnecessary but appropriate to note: These "weak, broken, mentally crippled" immigrants from Central and Southern Europe went on to contribute immeasurably to the building of modern America. Around 25 percent came with no intention to stay — a common misunderstanding of late 19th- and early 20th-century immigration — but only to accumulate savings or subsidize their families back home and then return. Too bad Tucker Carlson's immigrant English, German and Swiss ancestors weren't among them. Instead, they took part in America's first Great Replacement, of native Americans.  

Typepad has been blinking on-off all day and I can't seem to raise anyone there to maybe offer a hint as to what the problem is. So I'll take a break. Perhaps I can return later.

Of dogs, ducks, and mirrors

The first video reminded me of the second video, from Duck Soup.

Twitter needs this.. pic.twitter.com/ppkKQIPVk8

— Buitengebieden (@buitengebieden) May 7, 2022

Clarence Thomas and the need for psychological fitness tests for SC nominees

​​​​​From here on out, whenever psychology professors introduce the concept of projection to their fledging disciples, they will simply have them read two items: a short bio of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, followed by his statements below, squawked on Friday night to John Yoo — yoo remember him — at an American Enterprise Institute, Manhattan Institute and Hoover Institution gathering.

What happened at the court is tremendously bad. I wonder how long we’re going to have these institutions at the rate we’re undermining them. Astounding.

Here he speaks of the court's harmony before Chief Justice John Roberts came on board: This is not the court of that era. We actually trusted each other. This is a variation of projection: hypocrisy. He does the very thing he just criticized others for: he undermines the court by belittling the chief justice's tenure.

We didn’t throw temper tantrums. It is incumbent on us to always act appropriately. This instance of projection could, by itself, serve as the heuristic model for understanding the term. It's more than astounding; it makes one want to slap the shit out of the perversely mendacious, whimpering gasbag. Not only did his pillow mate participate in the Jan. 6 attempt to overrule the Constitution and overthrow the U.S. government, Mr. Thomas refused to recuse himself from cases involving the intended coup.

Thomas ventured that conservatives never trashed a Supreme Court nominee. They did worse. Much worse. They denied even a hearing for one of President Obama's nominees for the specious reason that 2016 was an election year; then they rammed their own nominee through confirmation under the same circumstance. Thomas acknowledged that Merrick Garland did not get a hearing, but he was not trashed. You will not see the utter destruction of a single nominee. Just cynicism, mean-spiritedness and cheap political tricks.

His own, 1991 nomination was opposed by those people who were trying to keep me off the court over abortion. How was that possible? Thomas lied like a Trump nominee at his confirmation hearings, claiming he had never discussed abortion, he had no opinion on the matter — even though he was a law student at Yale the year Roe was decided.

I always say that when someone uses stare decisis that means they’re out of arguments. One assumes that Thomas would have graduated from Yale Law at the bottom of his class if Yale had retained a ranking system. Because this statement is doubly astounding in its ignorance. Stare decisis has been a common law practice since the 14th century. Perhaps he was making one of his "regular visits to the local pornography theater" on the day stare decisis was taught. The quote is from The Journal of Blacks in Higher Education, 2007.

As noted, some of these Thomas statements wander from the field of projection. But taken together they provide a concise object lesson in the projecting mind as well as that of a liar, a hypocrite, a gaudy ridiculer, a condescending wanker, an insufferable poseur, a thin-skinned crank and a wholly unfit "professional."

Indeed, taken together, Thomas' lurid statements demonstrate that Supreme Court nominees should be subjected to a psychological suitability test before Senate confirmation is entertained.

This man was once president of the United States. Chilling. Mortifying. Frightening.

"I think they had a tragic event in Buffalo. Tragic event in Buffalo with numerous people being killed. In 18 months in Afghanistan, we lost nobody."  — May, 2022

"Look, having nuclear — my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at MIT; good genes, very good genes, OK, very smart, the Wharton School of Finance, very good, very smart — you know, if you're a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, OK, if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I'm one of the smartest people anywhere in the world — it's true! — but when you're a conservative Republican they try — oh, do they do a number — that's why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fortune — you know I have to give my like credentials all the time, because we're a little disadvantaged — but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me — it would have been so easy, and it's not as important as these lives are — nuclear is powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what's going to happen and he was right — who would have thought? — but when you look at what's going on with the four prisoners — now it used to be three, now it's four--but when it was three and even now, I would have said ..." — July, 2016

***

And on, and on, he went.

The first quote's Say what? non sequitur and self-aggrandizement purchased on the murders of 10 innocent people are unsettling enough. The second quote is chock full of so much scrambled "thinking," it's downright frightening — not because he demonstrated that his brain was full of mush, but because 62,984,828 Americans then marched out of their house and voted for "it." 

Three minutes of hell in Ukraine

When that next artillery shell might land in your trench ...

One of the most impressive videos of the war so far pic.twitter.com/aD9DTEUzKr

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 14, 2022

(I, for one, would not be as calm as these guys. The video is from a Kyiv Independent defense reporter.) 

We seem to have forgotten already - Covid's toll in the U.S.

Each dot represents an American who has died from Covid. And this isn't all of them, one million all together. (NYT)

Politico: some folks are wondering if Madison Cawthorn is unfit for Congress. I kid you not.

Politico's subtitle of a piece by staff writer Michael Kruse is a genuine knee-slapper. The main title, "'He’s Not OK': The Entirely Predictable Unraveling of Madison Cawthorn," is sober enough. But either Kruse or a Politico editor added, "A string of embarrassing incidents has led many to question whether the young congressman from North Carolina was really ready for the job."

Excusez-moi, but ... many question his congressional job readiness? This implies that some do not, and that, though hard to believe, is probably true. Still, if any immature imbecile ever demonstrated more ill suitability for the position of United States representative, well, that moron is unknown to history. Madison Cawthorn is not only a non-walking, literally rolling disaster, he has never shied away from proving it. He has:

* twice been stopped for driving with a revoked license.

* twice been stopped by airport security for attempting to board a plane with a gun.

* made bizarre (and hypocritical) allegations about congressional colleagues' orgies, "sexual perversion" and cocaine use.

* called the heroic Ukrainian president a "thug."

* suggested that tea-totaling Nancy Pelosi is an alcoholic.

* faced allegations of insider trading.

* been the subject of scandalous photos and videos.

* been involved in an attempt to overthrow the U.S. government.

* mocked "family values" by divorcing after only eight months.

* mocked "family values" by inviting several charges of sexual harassment.

When even your most unhinged doppelgängers begin to question your sanity, as Sean Hannity did Madison Cawthorn's five days ago, saying "it sounds to me like he needs some type of intervention or help," then there is no call for anyone questioning "whether the young congressman from North Carolina was really ready for the job." The answer is in the can, as they say.

None of this is to say that a few other Republicans and Democrats in the House are substantially less unbalanced than Mr. Cawthorn. They're just more subtle about it (except for Greene, Gohmert, Gosar, Gaetz ...)   

With this one simple act, Russia could forever secure its territorial gains in Ukraine

By now the world is all too depressingly familiar with Russian military doctrine, which permits the use of nuclear weapons against "large-scale aggression utilizing conventional weapons in situations critical to the national security of the Russian Federation.” This barbaric philosophy of war means that Vladimir Putin could simply announce Russia's annexation of its territorial gains in eastern and southern Ukraine, thus making the regions part of the Russian Federation. And should Ukraine persist in retaking those territories — see: Russian military doctrine.

That Putin intends to legalize such an official, illegal land grab is "likely" within the next few months, writes the Institute for the Study of War. He would then quickly follow up with an announcement, either vague or specific, that the territories shall if necessary be defended by nuclear weapons. This verbal gambit has so far intimidated the West into proceeding with extreme caution in its military assistance to Ukraine. Russian annexation could potentially convert caution into inertia. Which means Ukraine, with the West's military support, must act with the greatest urgency.

Because for Putin, the matter of annexation is a question of timing. If he foresees additional territorial gains in eastern and southern Ukraine, he will postpone annexation, opting for the largest land grab possible. (This is the most likely of likelihoods.) But if he suspects his military is on the brink of collapse, or hopelessly stalemated, or gradually losing Ukrainian ground, that's when he would "officially" incorporate the territories he has into the Federation. Negotiations would become moot. Ukraine and the West would then face an awful dilemma: concede Russia's grossly illicit acquisitions, or risk a nuclear confrontation.

Since both prospects are unacceptable to both non-Russian parties, only the third option of a massive Ukrainian counteroffensive is to be entertained. Russia's ground gains, east and south, must be erased, and they must be erased swiftly. As with Putin's decision on annexation, the timing of a Ukrainian counter-push is paramount; it must be executed before Russia can organize administrative centers in misappropriated territories and declare them parts of the Federation.

Annexation of such a broad swath of Ukrainian ground — from its southeast, its Azov Sea access, and all the way along its Black Sea coastline — would almost certainly suffocate the very existence of a Ukrainian state. Much of its agricultural ground and all of its sea-export access would be lost, its economy permanently ruptured, its national finances devastated. Moreover, millions of its citizens would be captives of a Stalinesque occupier — the stolen Ukrainian ground would become a kind of huge Gaza Strip.

All of which means just one thing. The West must immediately saturate Ukraine with the heaviest of armaments it can supply — which is one helluva lot; helicopters, armored personnel vehicles, tanks, and especially artillery. Every fighter jet the West can scrape up is strongly advised as well.

Ukraine is indisputably capable of winning this war outright, and soon, if the West adequately supplies it and Ukraine immediately commences a counteroffensive in the lands Russia aims to illegally incorporate. But of course an overwhelming offensive is impossible without overwhelming war matériel. The decision is the West's: either accept Vladimir Putin's barbarous thievery as a fait accompli, or arm Ukraine to the teeth — now.

Show of hands: How many here thought our politics couldn't get any dumber?

Greg Sargent writes: "Just when you thought our politics couldn’t get any dumber, this week brought two new GOP attacks that spectacularly defied expectations. The Biden administration, we were told, is redirecting scarce infant formula to migrant babies and [says the new Trump, J.D. Vance] might be deliberately importing fentanyl to kill virtuous heartland-dwelling supporters of Donald Trump."

There is a flaw in Sargent's lede. Not one of us, not for a long, long time, has thought our politics could not get any dumber. As long as Trump is around, plus the new Trumps, like Vance, and all the little Trumps in Congress, like Jim Jordan, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz, Louie Gohmert, Kevin McCarthy, Paul Gosar, Elise Stefanik, Steve Scalise, Gary Palmer, Virginia Foxx, Jim Banks, Andy Barr, Andy Biggs, Lauren Boebert, Mo Brooks, Madison Cawthorn, Billy Long, Greg Pence, Chip Roy, Ted Cruz, John Barrasso, Mike Lee, Rick Scott, Rand Paul, Marsha Blackburn, Tom Cotton, Lindsey Graham, Josh Hawley, Jim Inhofe, Ron Johnson, Mitch McConnell, John Kennedy and Marco Rubio, the center of American representative democracy will remain the epicenter of immense stupidity. 

Later in his piece, Sargent himself explains why: "The key here is the relentless, never-ending search for ever more creative ways to stoke resentment, victimization and alarm about leftist enemies around every corner."

How could anything they do from here on "spectacularly defy expectations"? When even treason becomes part of a party's mainstream philosophy and actions, there's nothing else left to surprise us, dazzle us, stupefy us, outrage us or disappoint us.