The latest polling data (New York Times/CBS News) on Americans’ opinion of Congress would seem to indicate that a wholesale House-cleaning is in store for 2006. The numbers are truly astounding and a reflection of how badly the Republicans have handled their stewardship. From kibitzing on deeply personal matters to rudely reinventing Senate tradition, these boys have set new lows in political degradation. In so doing, it seems they’ve reissued the Contract with America as a contract on themselves.
That, anyway, is what the numbers could indicate -- though “could” is the at-risk word. It’s true that only 33 percent of voters approve of the job Congress is doing. And it’s true that only a breathtakingly paltry 19 percent believe Congress shares their priorities. It’s also true -- and this number is even more breathtaking -- that only 40 percent of Republicans approve of their own Republican Congress.
All three collective attitudes are true, yet all three put together are probably not quite the man the fourth is, confidently -- if not somewhat smugly -- noted by the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee: “People are not enamored, maybe, of the institution of Congress, but they love their congressman.”
Oh, do they ever. Statistics back up Reynold’s statement -- here we’re looking at the House only -- and they’re as depressing as the others are breathtaking. During the entire second half of the 20th century, 93 percent of incumbents who sought reelection won reelection. That percentage hit 98 in 1986 and 1988, and again in 1998 and 2000. The incumbent-reelection rate in 2004? A whopping 99 percent: 401 incumbents ran, five were defeated.
Still, the memory of 1994 beckons. Against all odds and surpassing even the winners’ expectations, the minority party managed to pick up 54 House seats in that midterm election, making the minority the majority for the first time since 1954.
Is a repeat possible? I have no idea. No one does. It might be helpful, however, to look at what the Republicans’ top strategist, Frank Luntz, identified as key elements of the victory. On the morning after, the man who focused-grouped the Contract with America sat down and wrote out some thoughts to the newly elected House leadership on what just happened. He titled it “Lessons from the Battlefield.” I give you selected portions -- the first of which defied history and conventional theory then, and could again.
No incumbent is safe anymore…. Newly elected representatives had best keep an eye on the rear-view mirror. The winds of change will not die so quickly….
Being one of US is better than being one of THEM…. The Democrats became THEM, the symbol of what was wrong with Washington….
While Americans have clearly embraced conservative principles over their liberal alternatives, they hate labels or being labeled themselves. They want to pick from a buffet of options and solutions that respond to changing priorities rather than from a pre-set ideological menu….
Anger has replaced fear as the premier political emotion. Over the past 10 years, politicians were most successful when they relied on fear to motivate voters. From Social Security (a Democratic scare tactic) to Willie Horton (a Republican ploy), these scare tactics worked. But the politicians have cried “wolf” too often….
Ideas moved the Republicans from minority to majority status, but it could not have happened without the angry public mood. The public is demanding a bold, forward-looking agenda, and they expect it to come from the Republicans in Congress rather than the president….
The Republican Contract with America is the most significant story of 1994. The contract was not some campaign gimmick. With its non-partisan tone and issue specificity, the contract has redefined the way national campaigns are run, and it will soon redefine the way Congress itself runs.
Notwithstanding that the Contract was indeed a gimmick, the memo’s last lines encapsulated the Republicans’ 1994 strategy. Using populist themes, they “nationalized” the midterm election by riding the undercurrent of nationwide anger with a focused and disciplined message. As the Cleveland Plain Dealer editorialized just days after the election, “Luntz’s secret boil[ed] down to the old political advice that if you want to lead, find out which way the people are going, get out front and shout, ‘Follow me.’”
We know from polling data where the people are going. What we don’t know is if the Democrats will get out front and shout -- with one voice.
Of course the Elephascist (I refuse to call them Republicans anymore, since the dominant faction in that party has made it clear they want an empire abroad--and at home--rather than a republic) chairman is smug. He knows the HAL 1984 black boxes from Diebold and other fascist corporations can blunt any anger of the voters.
Posted by: Kid Charlemagne | June 20, 2005 at 08:57 AM
I've said it before,they don't care about the polls when they can Diebold their way to office.
Voters in Florida actually thought they had gotten RID of Jeb and were astonished to find he had "won" another term.
Wake up rubes. Election reform or it's all ovah.
Posted by: Marblex | June 20, 2005 at 11:48 AM
I have written DNC and several blogs reminding us that we simply MUST get rid of those evoting machines before the 2008 election or all our efforts to rid ourselves of Republican antics will have been for naught. We must remember it's who counts the votes that count. Please write your representatives in DC and urge them to get to work to ensure we have a verifiable paper trail in 2008.
Posted by: Alan Charles | June 20, 2005 at 05:05 PM