If there's anything instructive in the latest data dump from the New York Times/CBS News polls, it's that the collective Democratic mind is now concentrated more on issues than electability, while the reverse holds true for its Republican counterpart. We're speaking in terms of the broadest possible interpretation here, which often admits the broadest possible flaw, but, at any rate, that's what the numbers seem to suggest.
If true, it's a surprising turnabout. Democrats are usually fixated on the electability question, while Republicans, secure in their moral superiority, coronate early and firmly. But after two terms of the Destructor Guy, the latter are now panicking -- and signaling that they're willing to sell off a piece of their supreme orthodoxy if that means holding onto the White House.
GOPers are saying one thing, while expressing a readiness to do another. According to the Times/CBS polls, "Large majorities of Republicans in New Hampshire and Iowa said they wanted the next president to be as conservative or more conservative than President Bush." Without getting into the modern-day definitional problems of conservatism, that, in itself, is a mind-bender, leaving one wondering how any candidate could be "more conservative" than Bush, sans the public display of an armband.
But the polls also found that "two-thirds of New Hampshire Republicans and one-half of Iowa Republicans said they were open to voting for candidates who did not share their view on issues like abortion and same-sex marriage." Simply put, electoral pragmatism is edging out ideology, at least for now through Nov. 2008. Anything to win -- and a lot of something will be required. They know it, and accept it.
Since roughly the post-McGovern era, however, this has been the defining characteristic of the Democratic mind, given the party's recurrent difficulties in seizing the White House. But change may be in the air. The polls are suggestive: "By contrast, 50 percent of New Hampshire Democrats said they would not be prepared to vote for a candidate who wanted to keep troops in Iraq 'longer than you would like,' even if they thought the Democrat had a good chance of victory in November."
The conclusion to be drawn, albeit gingerly: This time around, issues are somewhat more important to Democrats than electability. In short, we may be seeing the ascendancy of a progressive ideology over electoral pragmatism (which, to thoughtful progressives, is roughly one in the same). It's about time.
As well, there's some rather good evidence that this change in attitude extends beyond the Iraq war. And the change proceeds -- logically, I think -- from the disastrous domestic course laid by Bush throughout two agonizing terms.
Democrats, independents and even that peculiar slice of sensible Republicans are beginning to wonder if, perhaps, something can't be done for Americans at home. While virtually the entire presidency of George W. Bush has fixated on rehabilitating the world, America itself has been sinking. And we're feeling the sting.
To wit: "Many of the elements of bad economic times are coalescing -- rising gas prices, a devalued housing market and stagnating wages. Depending on the depth of the economic downturn..., financial worries could eclipse the war in Iraq as the driving issue in the presidential campaign."
What's more, "a CBS News poll taken in October found that health care is of equal concern to voters as is the war in Iraq. In the poll, taken in mid-October, respondents were asked what they’d like to hear the candidates for president discuss more of during the 2008 campaign. While 26 percent said the war in Iraq, 25 percent said health care."
Financial worries, the related lack of guaranteed health care, jobs and income stagnation, awareness of educational woes, etc., etc. -- all are commingling in the American mind to create the profoundly depressed sense that we're getting screwed, and someone had better start doing something about it.
Which swings us back to the original point regarding Democrats' weighing of issues vs. electability. And at the risk of beating a dead horse, since I raised this issue only last Monday, in the earliest showdown the Big Three candidates are, I think, blowing it.
"The Democratic contest is essentially tied in Iowa, among Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Obama and Mr. Edwards..., according to The Times/CBS News Polls. None of the Democrats has a statistically significant lead in Iowa: Mrs. Clinton has the support of 25 percent of respondents, Mr. Edwards 23 percent and Mr. Obama 22 percent."
How could one break out of the small pack? Simple, or as close to simple as it gets in politics: Cut the internecine needling.
Iowans have heard it plenty, and could recite the jibes as readily as the candidates themselves. What they're eager for now are tangible solutions to our swelling mound of tangible problems. And whoever first emphasizes progressive answers over now-tedious attacks will seize a potentially powerful edge.
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