Separating confidence from triumphalism

Andrew Sullivan:

It's clear enough by now that this election will be a nail-bitingly close one; and that any early triumphalism among the Obamaites is preposterous. Of course he can lose.

Of course "of course he can lose." The Kansas City Chiefs could play professional football next year. Vladimir Putin could join the Tiny Tim Fan Club. Newt Gingrich could shave some ego and Sarah Palin could read a book and Mitt Romney could force a personal acquisition of some human DNA. A bit more realistically, I could stop giving a rat's ass about the commentariat's admonitory prediction, en masse, that "of course he could lose."

For me, anyway, "Obamaitism" and "blind optimism" are not synonymous. For some they are, and from those folks I keep a safe and intellectually healthy distance. Such rabidly pro-Obama derangement is too spookily reminiscent of the wretched W. years. Yes, I'm pro-Obama, but I can also read an electoral map and I can read (positive) polling data from the critical half-dozen or so battleground states on that map and I can appreciate increasing demographic advantages for Obama as well. And most of all, I can recognize an epic loser--hello, Mitt--from a parsec away.

Could things change throughout the next five months?

Let's give that some deep thought ...

... I'm thinking ...

OK, I'm back. Of course they could. But for the moment, at least, to possess a vast confidence in Obama's reelection isn't "triumphalist" in a preposterously pollyannish, delusional, or quixotic sense. It's perfectly logical.

Comments

[Susan Zoon]

The only trouble I see for Obama is if he endorses some Simpson/Bowles type plunder of the social safety net. The "Grand Bargain" is being dangled out there again by increasingly desperate Republicans...If Obama takes the bait he could lose.

Personally, I think he is too smart for that and the only reason it was offered last year was to thoroughly embarrass the Republicans and to take away that dull "Bipartisanship" saw... but it keeps me up at night nonetheless.

[NickT]

I do wish people would stop reading and analyzing Andrew Sullivan's collection of manic-depressive non sequiturs. On economics, he knows less than Megan McArdle, on foreign affairs he knows less than Jeffrey Goldberg, and on American politics he knows less than Clive Crook. These are not intellectual endowments of which any thinking human being should be proud.

[BowDownToTheDowner]

On page views Andrew knows business:

"We fly our country's flag because we are proud of the things it stands for."

That and other astounding revelations can only be foundeded at - http://www.youcanstillread.com

[caribbeanobserver]

Come on P.M ,own up! Aren't you all pooped out and worn with the negative, pessimistic, gloom and doom talksayers, who invade our spirits each day with their 'whatever thoughts rambling around in their brains'? Oh, for the days of thoughtful, substance once a week missives based on facts!

[Robert Lipscomb]

It's only a 2-1 chance.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election