Obama's luck (Wouldn't YOU want to run against Romney?)

The choice of Ryan would seem to confirm two perpetual truths about Gov. Romney and President Obama: the latter is the luckiest politician since Reagan, and the former is the worst presidential candidate since Dukakis. The first premise flows naturally and inexorably from the second.

Once it became stunningly obvious that he was blowing it, Romney had two ways to go in this race. He could a) move more briskly and openly to the center-right, trusting that his base would vote not for him but nonetheless feverishly against Obama, or b) he could nervously shore up his base by selecting as his running mate a certified snake-oil pitchman who would imperil the independent vote.

There was risk involved in choice "a"--risky, because "a" entailed trust. Romney is clinically risk-averse, however, and he Nixonianly drips paranoia and therefore the quality of ever trusting in others. In choice "b," though, greater certainty awaited. Sure there would be independent casualties, but his core strike force would remain unmolested.

And it is here that we must recall the ever-shrinking circumference of far-right GroupThink. Romney has surrounded himself for several years now with narrow ideologues who've been uniquely capable of guiding him through the minefields of farther and farther right-winging fanaticism and madness. Romney may have been born absent any ideological bones, but his advisers are the sturdiest of True Believers--and week by week, month after month, they have sucked Mitt Romney into that delusional pseudoconservative hole which casually dismisses pregnant electoral facts (e.g., vast majorities oppose injury to Medicare) and swallows instead the far-right wonders of vastly overconfident, self-satisfied triumphalism. 

In short, they think they're the majority. Hence they've convinced Romney that he needs the base far more than he requires independents.

That, anyway, is my educated guess--and the principal reason why President Obama is the luckiest politician alive.

Comments

[AnneJ]

Am I the only one who thinks the veep debate will be more exciting than the Presidential debates this year?

[Peter G]

The eternal dilemma again presents itself, whether or not to go for quanity in broad appeal and hope they vote.or to concentrate on the most committed on the assurance that they will vote. The first option stopped being an option some time ago I think. Or, at least, an option with a high probability of success.
I am not sure Romney is all that immersed in right wing ideology. His almost unique political flexibility pretty much proves that point. It may be that his business experience has taught him that anything, properly marketed, can be sold. If so, I think he is about to learn a truly hard lesson. There are a great many more legal restraints about what Coke can say about Pepsi, and vice versa, than you will find in any election. And Romney is a finance guy. He hired marketers.

[MinneapolisPipe]

Sometimes you make your own luck.

If you look back over the past two years, you will see that Obama very deliberately elevated Paul Ryan's status (see Ryan Lizza's profile of Ryan in the New Yorker).

The "base", reflexively or intentionally, then made him their savior.

And now with the Bain attacks and the Ryan plan, Obama is ready for the TKO. Amazing for a president with over 8% unemployment.

That is not luck. It is patient, ruthless cunning.

This is all you'll ever need to know about Barack Obama:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcGvJGmF4gQ

[William Caulfield]

"...Nixonianly drips paranoia..."

I love the phrase, but would have gone with "drips Nixonian paranoia."

There will be some great books coming out next year explaining the upcoming election. Most of the drafts will be titled "It Wasn't My Fault."

[Lisa Lewis]

While most successful people and even not so successful people might attribute some of their good fortune to luck, I don't like it when journalists and pundits try to explain away or minimize PBO's success by attributing it to luck. What he has accomplished in this racist country was by no means easy or because of luck. Look at the senate. There are no black senators right now. We have one black governor. It is virtually impossible for black people to win elections statewide let alone nation wide and it's not like we've ever had a black president before or even expected to have one at this time. PBO is a highly intelligent, confident, skilled, strategic and gifted politician. I forget who said it but, "Luck is when preparation meets opportunity." And PBO has spent a lifetime preparing for this opportunity.

The so-called "smart" Republicans knew that no matter what shape the economy was in PBO would be a formidable candidate PERIOD and what self-respecting, entitled white guy wants to join McCain in the "We lost to the black guy" club. Only the loons, buffoons and the completely oblivious chose to seek the Republican nomination to run against PBO. So, it's not luck; it's his political prowess that kept his would-be legitimate challengers on the sidelines and allowed only the deluded and idiotic to pursue this fool's errand.

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[Beauzeaux]

I agree with Lisa. In sports, it's the black guy with "natural talent" and the white guy who "works hard."
The President Obama meme is that he's "lucky."
However, Benjamin Franklin said "Diligence is the mother of good luck." Or, in its modern version, the harder I work, the luckier I get.
Barack Obama did not get where he is by good fortune. Brains, diligence, and an understanding of politics are more likely.

[Beauzeaux]

--There will be some great books coming out next year explaining the upcoming election. Most of the drafts will be titled "It Wasn't My Fault." --

Yhe book with the perfect title has already been written: "Mistakes Were Made, but Not by Me."