The GOP's new mascot: the Cheshire cat

While it's fun to wargame potential coalitions between House Democrats and their yet-pathologized Republican counterparts, eventually reality intervenes and insists on re-terrorizing us. This, for example, from Cook Political Report, via Politico:   

[J]ust six Republicans--around 3 percent of the House GOP Conference--will occupy districts whose overall voter makeup favors Democrats. That figure is down from 22 Republicans that resided in such Democrat-friendly districts in 2012.

Perhaps the most relentless reality-distorter in our wargaming amusements is the varying headcount of the Tea Party and Tea Party-aligned caucus within the 113th Congress's House Republican conference. Observers routinely cite anywhere from 50 to 80 of these yokels--they'll be the problem, we hear; they'll be the ones so disagreeably haunting all of John Boehner's moderate dreams--yet the actual number is closer to 227 (233 minus the above six). The reason for such realistic yokel-inflation is simple: "Establishment" Republicans who fear Tea Party primary challengers will vote as de facto Tea Partiers.  

And that, further, is why some formal schism--either an institutional split between the Republican Party and the Tea Party, or the Tea Party-cum-GOP versus an inchoate Conservative Party--is essential to conservatism's survival. As long as congressional Republicans at large are subject to the narrow, fanatically pseudoconservative whims of a Tea Party primary base, they cannot vote as traditional Republicans might and thus the party will, in time, Cheshire-like, swallow itself whole.

Comments

[shsavage]

"As long as congressional Republicans at large are subject to the narrow, fanatical whims of a Tea Party primary base, they cannot vote as traditional Republicans might and thus the party will, in time, Cheshire-like, swallow itself whole."

Eventually, though, something will emerge from this almighty, self-devouring swallow. The only question is, "What form will the excreta take?" I fear SSDD.

[japa21]

The question is not how many Democratic favorable districts are represented by Republicans, but how many Republican favorable districts will be turned into Democratic favorable due to current Republican behavior.

We won't know this until 2014, obviously, but I wouldn't be surprised if the number is in the double digit territory.

[Peter G]

Rem acu tetigisti. Barring the split you describe and which I think the most probable outcome, there is the possibility of a purge. Perhaps if the Republicans put there inestimable talents at purging voters or otherwise mitigating their power to some domestic use they might yet reclaim control of their party. This might be done by requiring something more than merely a plurality of primary voters to decide primaries. Rules can be altered and gamed. and there is always the appeal to enlightened self interest, or in this case greed. It can't entirely have escaped the notice of the super moneyed classes that the chuckle heads they empowered are poisoning the same well they drink from.