VRA decided 13 years ago, Part II

Yale Law's and the NY Times' Linda Greenhouse makes the searing distinction--which I further emphasize--between attempts at voter suppression then and attempts at voter suppression now: 

[T]he ink was barely dry on the Supreme Court’s decision in Shelby County v. Holder when Attorney General Greg Abbott of Texas announced that his state’s voter-ID law, blocked by a federal court last summer, "will take effect immediately."

It couldn't in 2012. It can in 2013, and beyond.

Last year Justice was legally empowered, in Texas and elsewhere, to intervene; now it's a legally beached mackerel in the moonlight. The Old Confederacy, as well as Ohio and Pennsylvania and other occupied outposts of pseudoconservative reactionaryism, can finally have their voter-suppression hoedown. Yee-haw.

In sum, we no longer can--or should--safely predict 2012's backlash as a 2014/16 event, because conditions have changed. Restrictions will soon apply that were barred from application before.

Does that mean another backlash is impossible? Of course not. The only absolute in physics and politics is that there isn't one--that, plus those proverbial actions compelling reactions. The one safe prediction, though, is that voter suppression is now far more likely to tangibly manifest itself in the next several election cycles. One could even go so far as to say that that's a fact, the denial of which portends an even worse electoral disaster. 

Comments

[Peter G]

So, in the light of this post, do you think it still makes sense to wait for the resounding mid-term victory of 2014 to tackle immigration reform in 2015 with your hypothetical Democratic majority? Because it looks like to me you are arguing for the worst of both possibilities. Back burner immigration reform to the dismay of minorities most affected and wait for voter suppression to shrink your electorate still further. I think I'd be bringing both issues front and center before the election when one might actually use one, suppression, to achieve the other by getting out the under performing votes sitting right in front of you.

[Sam]

The VRA decision seems to be just about as perfect impetus as you could ask for if you want the Democrats to start slamming Republicans hard for a 2014 run. What better way to get out the message that Republicans are maliciously impeding progress in Washington and wantoning damaging the country for political gain than a huge voter registration effort coinciding with a national Democratic offensive?

If Obama and the DNC are going to slow-play a meek hand, this is a terrible turn of events. But it could, with considerable effort, become the catalyst for a very uncommon midterm election.