We can say, with reasonable confidence [85 percent], that a Republican will be moving into the White House in 2017.
That conclusion is based on the results of a data model we created, and is primarily the result of two factors…. First, a Republican will win because voters typically shy away from the party currently in power when an incumbent isn’t running. In fact, a successor candidate is three times less likely to win. Second, President Barack Obama’s approval ratings are too low to suggest a successor candidate will take the White House.
Remember when Barack Obama lost the 2012 election because of data models based on the high unemployment rate?
I'll stack my political instincts against Ipsos's model any day — and I'd bet big.