Some good, lots of bad, and incalculable tons of the ugliest

Policy and Survey Research, PSR, is a nonpartisan think tank based in the West Bank city of Ramallah. I came across its 26 May-1 June 2024 poll conducted in cooperation with Germany's Konrad Adenauer Foundation. Its findings in Palestinian opinion are, in a word, fascinating.

The twin-region polling can present the reader some confusion — it did me — until recognizing PSR's unnoted division in classifying who's who. I'll spare you my frustration. While the poll's emphasis is on Gaza, enticingly first in the lede and most likely your reason for reading, references to "the public," "the Palestinians" and "majority" mean the enclaves' collectivity. Gaza's percentages are specified, as are the West Bank's. Given closer attention, the back-and-forth fivefold distinctions would have been clear to me much sooner.       

If you choose to skip my selected segments and consult the poll's far more expansive findings, here's another heads-up. Keep in mind that Gazan "support" for a proposition's rise or decline connotes a shift in support only within that group that expressed it in a March poll,* i.e., not Gazans at large.   

Two thirds of the public support the October 7 attack and nearly 80% believe [it's] speeding the process of ending the war.... While overall support for the October 7 Hamas offensive remains high, it has seen a four-percentage point decline compared to the previous poll, now at two-thirds. The decrease in this percentage came from the Gaza Strip, which saw a decrease of 14 percentage points. It is important to note that support for this attack does not necessarily mean support for Hamas and does not mean support for any killings or atrocities committed against civilians.

We asked who would emerge victorious in this war, and a two-thirds majority said they expected Hamas to win, an increase of 4 percentage points compared to our previous poll three months ago. It is worth noting however that fewer Gazans, at just 48%, now expect Hamas to win, a decrease of 8 percentage points compared to the results three months ago.

On Palestinian-Israeli relations, the results differ markedly from the results of the previous poll we published three months ago. Support for a two-state solution stands at just one-third. Unlike the previous poll, in the current one, support for the two-state solution decreased significantly. But the decline in support for a two-state solution came almost completely from the Gaza Strip, a dramatic drop of 30 percentage points.

We presented the public with three possible means of ending Israeli occupation and establishing an independent Palestinian state. A little over half chose "armed struggle." These results indicate an 8-percentage point increase in support for armed struggle. The rise in support for armed struggle comes from the Gaza Strip, where this percentage rises by 17 points.

The final paragraph delivers a hard blow to the future. Gaza's doubly increased support over general for an armed struggle suggests what I should think a thoroughgoing logical analysis would. And there lie yet bloodier years for Gazans and Israelis alike.

As Netanyahu's now even farther-right war cabinet's military persists in mass annihilation of Gaza's civilian population, swelling numbers among the young will come to believe the inverse of Harold Macmillan's 1958 words — often mistakenly attributed to Winston Churchill — "war-war is better than jaw-jaw."**

Gaza's coarsening was avoidable post-7 Oct., avoidable a year ago, 10 years ago and more than 70 years ago. Israel's coarsening has fed Gaza's in its perpetual rejection of the two-state solution capable of disabling perpetual conflict.

I opened by writing that the poll's findings are, in a word, fascinating. I'll close in writing that Israel's government is also, in a word, abominable.    

________

* PSR's 5-10 March poll is here. Should you visit this every-bit-as-fascinating March polling, keep in mind that a rise or decline in referenced Gazan support of some given subject — e.g. armed resistance — means a statistical up or down within the percentage cited as yea-or-nay support the preceding poll. For instance a 14% increase is that from the even-earlier percentage cited, not a sizable bump among all Gazans.

** A refreshing lighter note. I read that in much of England and Wales war is pronounced in similarity to jaw. Thus to locals the phrase had rhyming appeal, jaw-jaw is better than waw-waw.

Comments

[VoiceOfReason]

On a related note, the Israeli Supreme Court has just ruled that ultra-Orthodox men must serve in the IDF. That threatens to upend Bibi's razor-thin ruling coalition, as has his dismissal of his war cabinet. The regime's days may be numbered.

[PM]

Do you also suspect, as I do, VoR, that the rulng provides Bibi & Friends with an excellent opportunity to defy the court? It has no troops, as Stalin said of the pope.

[VoiceOfReason]

I wouldn't bet against that, PM.

[VoiceOfReason]

It would seem that the Israeli Supreme Court hinted at a way out. According to the NYT, "Israel’s Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled that the military must begin drafting ultra-Orthodox Jewish men.... In a unanimous decision, nine judges held that there was no legal basis for the longstanding military exemption given to many ultra-Orthodox religious students. Given the absence of a law distinguishing between seminarians and other men of draft age, the court ruled, the country’s compulsory service laws must similarly apply to the ultra-Orthodox minority."

The key phrase noting the absence of a law can be addressed, providing Bibi has enough votes to shove it through the Knesset. Time will tell...

[PM]

Given the government's theo-rightest radicalism, I'll guess that's a lock.

[VoiceOfReason]

Even center-left coalitions end up being dominated by radical Orthodox religious parties, so I imagine it would be a lock regardless. It's the clear counter-example to critics of the US two-party system, a situation where there are so many parties in Israel that nobody can form a clear majority. Every Israeli government is a cobbled together mess, held captive by the smallest of parties, who punch far above their weight.